Threemonth weather outlook mostly warmer and drier

WE may all be in lockdown, but the good news is the chances of being able to walk around the block without getting wet are pretty good over the next three months.

Coastal Otago looks set to be warmer and drier than average, Niwa’s threemonth weather outlook shows.

Niwa National Climate Centre principal scientist Chris Brandolino said there was an 81% chance that Oceanic Ensoneutral conditions would persist between April and June.

“Even with oceanic Ensoneutral conditions, the atmosphere is expected to lean in an El Ninolike direction from April to June, resulting in more westerlyquarter air flows than normal.

“Warmerthanaverage ocean waters in the Coral Sea and westcentral Pacific Ocean are expected to have some influence on New Zealand’s climate in the first half of the threemonth period.

“Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average or near average for most of New Zealand, except the west of the South Island where AprilJune temperatures are most likely to be near average.”

However, he warned cold snaps and frosts were likely to occur as the threemonth period progressed.

“With a westerlyquarter air flow, New Zealand may be more exposed to fronts and more frequent temperature changes, particularly the South Island.”

For Southland and inland Otago, temperatures are likely to be near average; rainfall totals are about equally likely to be above normal or near normal; and soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal.

In coastal Otago, temperatures are equally likely to be above average or near average; rainfall totals are most likely to be in the nearnormal range; and soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be below normal or near normal.