Slowly, the fightback begins

TODAY marks the start of one of the most important periods in generations for many southern communities. The days, weeks and months — many months — that follow will hint at how enduring the Covid19 pandemic response will be, and at how resilient we are in the face of wholesale economic change.

The neartotal coronavirus lockdown ended at 11.59pm last night, replaced with Level 3 restrictions that let us marginally widen our bubbles; that allow for more — but still heavily restricted — opportunities for localfocused commerce, and that let an estimated 500,000 more New Zealanders to get back to work.

We spent five weeks in Level 4 lockdown: five weeks in which we hunkered down for what we understood was the greater good; five weeks during which successfully slowing Covid19 was increasingly weighed against the knowledge many lives and livelihoods were slipping further into uncertainty.

Many local businesses were closed and so produced no revenue over the Level 4 lockdown. The relative few that could keep going — and this might not apply to our supermarkets — did so with dramatically reduced returns. Wages, rent, debt repayments, service fees and utilities all fell due over the month, regardless.

Now, we would do well to remember many people who were in work five weeks ago are now unemployed or are working dramatically reduced hours. Businesses that were once in good nick, or at least turning over what they needed to stay open each month, have either closed or are girding themselves for a protracted fight.

That fight, for workers and communities as much as businesses, starts today. The losses of the past month will be clear but the extent to which they can be recouped will be determined from today, and with each new day, as trading conditions become clearer. From a standing start in an uncertain environment, the best we can hope is that the recovery will gather momentum.

If we hope for a recovery — and, given the ferocity and abruptness of the global economic downturn, it remains a hope rather than a surety — we must all do our bit to support it. We all benefit from the moneygoround that comes with keeping jobs and incomes in our towns. If we support local businesses we support local people; if we support local people, we support our own communities.

Innovation and collaboration are fuelling locallevel initiatives. Local business directories have been reinvigorated and reimagined. In some centres, hospitality businesses are offering group discounts and prepay options. In some sectors, contracts and employees are being ‘‘shared’’ and work is even being referred among erstwhile competitors.

There are other, much more grassroots campaigns. Sports clubs are urging members to much more actively support their sponsors; school associations are urging their families to support the businesses that employ the parents that help make their school communities.

As all this happens, there remains the significant need for ongoing support and planning from the Government. Its response package tackles the worst of the immediate economic and social fallout but, save from the push to fasttrack infrastructure projects and the repurposing of the Provincial Development Fund, just how it will support and stimulate during an extended recovery needs fleshing out.

The wage subsidy scheme preserved jobs but, if the road to recovery is too rocky or unclear, we must be braced for some sudden and significant shocks after the 12 week payout period ends. The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey, for example, found a net 54% of businesses expect to cut jobs in the year ahead. A net 61% expect lower activity for their firm over the year.

ANZ says ‘‘we have never seen numbers like these’’.

Not all of this is fuelled by the lockdown. Many jobs have been, and will be, lost because of the global economic response to the pandemic. Border restrictions, commodity prices, consumer confidence — all manner of elements now conspire to influence how successful our traditionally exportled economy will be in recovery.

And so we must seek to control what we can. We can all start, albeit in a limited, bubbleconfined way, from today.