Figuring out what a ‘promise’ means can take a lot of work
THE Green Party’s James Shaw is a pretty reasonable sort of fellow.
So it seemed an extreme thing for him to say during the election campaign this week that his party could walk away from a role in the next Government and sit on the crossbenches if it doesn’t get what it wants.
It may have been stating the obvious, but it was hardly the message of petulance that he needed to send to voters, having only just recovered from a climbdown from $11.7 million worth of backing for a private school building.
It sent the wrong message — a throwback to the dummyspitting Greens whose principles are more important than the reality of compromise.
How is that message expected to attract a single new vote to a party struggling for survival? The latest leaked UMR poll has the Greens on 3.2% (less than New Zealand First).
It wasn’t something Shaw planned to say on Thursday. In fact he started the day at a photo opportunity, helping to lug bags of vegetables being delivered to the Wellington City Mission.
But after that, he was queried by media about Green tax policy in the light of Labour’s and whether the two sets of promises are compatible.
It raises questions about whether the word ‘‘promise’’ should even be used to describe policy under MMP. It may be an outdated term.
First past the post was voted out because politicians wouldn’t keep their promises.
Ironically, this past week of the election campaign illustrates how it has been replaced with a system in which political promises are worth less than before.
The MMP system has other advantages. It means Parliament is more reflective of the community it represents and has parties such as the Greens — its antecedent, the Values Party, received more than 5% of the vote in 1975 but no MP.
However, MMP is a system in which promises are easily bartered away by parties in backroom negotiations after the election; it has become part of the stock in trade of journalists and commentators to work out in a campaign which are the truly nonnegotiable promises.
That was apparent this week when Finance Minister Grant Robertson unveiled his tax policy.
It is not about badgering politicians; it is about trying to get them to properly signal if not articulate their degree of commitment to various policies rather than leaving it an educated guess.
Robertson is seasoned enough to engage in a semantic quickstep.
He was repeatedly pressed by reporters but would not say that the proposed 39c tax rate on income over $180,000 was open to negotiation, that this new bracket would absolutely be implemented in any Government he was part of.
‘‘Nonnegotiable’’ was a term that was bandied around in the buildup to the first MMP election, before it became obvious it was not smart to spell out which policies were open to negotiation.
‘‘Bottom line’’ then replaced ‘‘nonnegotiable’’, but even that term has become open to interpretation and Robertson would not say
TODAY is Saturday, September 12, the 256th day of 2020. There are 110 days left in the year. Highlights in history on this date:
1609— English explorer Henry Hudson sails into the New York river that now bears his name.
1843 — The first purposebuilt theatre in New Zealand, the Royal Victoria, opens in Wellington.
1865 — A motion to politically separate the North and South islands is defeated by 31 votes to 17 in Parliament.
1870 — An Act of Parliament to establish the University of New Zealand is objected to by the Otago Provincial Council, which has already undertaken to establish a university of its own.
1878 — The obelisk known as Cleopatra’s Needle, originally cut from the quarries of Aswan about 1475BC, is erected in London.
Labour’s tax policy was a bottom line. He wouldn’t rule anything in or out.
What he said repeatedly was that ‘‘a Labour Government’’ would implement that tax policy.
He did not specifically define what he meant by ‘‘a Labour Government’’, but it was understood to mean a majority Labour Government that did not have to negotiate with anyone else.
It was so well understood that National leader Judith Collins was able to reasonably claim that Robertson had not ruled out negotiating additions to tax policy in any coalition deal with the Greens.
Shaw was initially careful in his response to Labour’s tax policy, calling it ‘‘tinkering’’, which is a fair assessment relative to his party’s wealth tax of 1% on net wealth over $1 million and 2% over $2 million.
He also referred to his party’s tax policy as a ‘‘top priority’’ rather than a ‘‘bottom line’’.
But both Robertson and Shaw hardened their messaging the following day.
For Robertson, when asked if he would rule out implementing the Greens’ tax policy, he said ‘‘yes’’ — although the qualifiers of ‘‘any’’ or ‘‘all’’ Green tax policy were missing, so it is still not crystal clear what caveats might be implicit in his answer.
For Shaw, he raised the prospect of the Greens sitting on the crossbenches if their policies were ignored. That arrangement would give Labour enough support on confidence issues to govern if required, but everything else would be negotiated on a casebycase basis.
He did rule out supporting a National Government.
But if you are a Labour supporter with the choice of supporting Labour or helping the Greens survive, would you waste your vote on a party happy not to be in Government?
It is very easy to send the wrong message in the heat of a campaign when things are simplified, amplified and misinterpreted.
A previous Green coleader, Russel Norman, inadvertently did that in 2014, when in an interview quite close to the election he talked about greater cooperation with National — Labour did not have a hope of winning.
Norman’s message was interpreted by some as being open to doing a deal with National, and the backlash required clarification. He probably lost a few supporters from the left who heard the message but not the clarification.
The most likely outcome of Shaw’s message this week was to increase the likelihood of a Labour majority Government — and that is about the only way Labour can actually keep its promises.
Zealand Herald.
1909 — The world’s first patent for synthetic rubber is granted to German chemist Fritz Hofmann.
1910 — The world’s first recorded female police officer, Alice Stebbins Wells, is appointed to the Los Angeles Police Department.
1914 — A naked flame coming into contact with firedamp (methane) causes an explosion at Ralph’s coal mine at Huntly, resulting in the deaths of 43 miners.
1931 — In a match between New Zealand and Australia at Eden Park, Auckland, rugby’s Bledisloe Cup is at stake for the first time. The match is won by New Zealand 2013. Fullback Ron Bush (University) is the sole Otago representative in the New Zealand team. The game is the last time a twothreetwo formation scrum is used.
1933 — While waiting at a red light in Southampton Row in Bloomsbury, London, Hungarianborn physicist Leo Szilard conceives the idea of a nuclear chain reaction.
1936 — Future Otago representative Brushy Mitchell scores two tries in the All Blacks’ 3813 rout of Australia at Carisbrook. Otago first fiveeighth Colin Gillies played his sole test for the All Blacks.
1939 — Voluntary enlistment for World War 2 begins for what becomes known as the 2nd New Zealand
The New
Expeditionary Force (2NZEF).
1940 — Four teenagers follow their dog when it disappears down a hole near Lascaux, France, and discover 17,000yearold drawings now known as the Lascaux cave paintings.
1953 — Nikita Khrushchev becomes the First Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party; future US president John F. Kennedy marries Jacqueline Bouvier.
1959 — Luna 2 is launched by the USSR and two days later becomes the first spacecraft to reach the surface of the moon.
1970— The supersonic airliner Concorde lands for the first time at Heathrow Airport in London, causing a barrage of complaints about the noise.
1976 — Margaret Thatcher is farewelled by a crowd of Queenstown residents at Frankton prior to flying to Christchurch, after spending the weekend at Earnslaw Station.
1981 — A controversial South African rugby tour of New Zealand concludes with a test match at Eden Park, Auckland. The game is constantly interrupted when flour bombs are dropped on to the playing field from a light aircraft circling the ground. Outside the ground, violent altercations between tour protesters and police occur.
1989 — The Polish Parliament approves the Solidarityled Government of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, formally ending communist rule.
1992 — The space shuttle Endeavour blasts off, carrying Mark Lee and Jan Davis, the first married couple in space; Mae Jemison, the first black woman in space; and Mamoru Mohri, the first Japanese national to fly in a US spaceship.
1994 — A stolen singleengined Cessna crashes into the South Lawn of the White House, coming to rest against the executive mansion; the pilot, Frank Corder, is killed.
2001 — While Air New Zealand’s financial woes continue, with a $1.3 billion writedown of its investment in recording a $173 million loss for the year, it still awards its senior executives performance bonuses.
Today’s birthdays
Dorothy (Dolla) Kate Richmond, New Zealand painter (18611935); Kiti Karaka Riwai, New Zealand tribal leader (18701927); James Hutton Kidd, New Zealand horticulturist/community leader (18771945); Sir Frank Leon Aroha Goetz, New Zealand politician (18921970); Tom McDonald,
New Zealand winemaker (190787); Earl Hagaman, New Zealand hotel operator (19252017); Warren Cole, New Zealand rower (19402019); Linda Gray, US actress (1940); Sir Douglas (Doug) Kidd, New Zealand politician (1941); Ramesh Patel, New Zealand hockey player (1953); Barry Andrews, British musician (1956); Rachel Ward, Englishborn actress (1957); Mike Joy, New Zealand ecologist (1959); Paul Walker, US actor (19732013); Belinda Colling, New Zealand netball and basketball international (1975); Ruben Studdard, US singer (1978); Benjamin McKenzie, US actor (1978); Jennifer Hudson, US actress/singer (1981); Alfie Allen, English actor (1986); Emmy Rossum, US actress/singer (1986).
Quote of the day: