Halfsteam ahead on bubble
THE timing of the announcement last week of a partial travel bubble between Australia and New Zealand was convenient for Labour and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. She, with the election upon us, was able to make encouraging noises while also expressing caution.
Ms Ardern has mastered this type of approach, offering hope while not giving too much away. Those desperate to cross the Tasman received a fillip just before polling started.
Australian Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack’s announcement that New Zealanders who do not come from Covid “hot spots” could arrive in New South Wales and the Northern Territory sans quarantine is, at least, a start. The door, however, and understandably, is only oneway. Those flying from Australia to New Zealand will still have to endure “managed isolation” for 14 days at a cost of $3100 for a single person.
The impact of this change is still to be seen. Australia urgently wants more visitors for economic reasons and for its tourism. And New Zealand has been No 2 (after China) in its visitor stakes. But only the most dedicated tourist would finish a holiday with two weeks stuck in a New Zealand hotel at considerable expense.
Most demand is likely to come from repatriating Australians, from those going to Australia for work and important business and for family reasons. There have been all sorts of heartbreaking stories about separation, missed funerals and lack of support and personal contact in the face of severe and terminal illness. It is estimated about 600,000 New Zealanders live in Australia, and many in this country will want to travel for the likes of weddings, births and to see grandchildren. The two weeks of “managed isolation” on return might be a price worth paying.
The Government, supported by National and probably the majority of voters, is correct to respond cautiously. Despite pressure from business and the tourism sector, the gains from the lockdown, and the second round of restrictions and second Auckland lockdown, are too precious to put at risk. As it is, an outbreak via Covid returnees, through our borders and through bordercontrol and airline staff remains a distinct possibility. We much continue to learn and adapt to minimise these hazards.
A safer bubble option would have been between Western Australia and the South Island. With no community transmission in either place for many months,
ChristchurchPerth flights could have been instigated. Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland also look better bets than New South Wales, which has had community transmission relatively recently and shares a long border with Covid “hot spot” Victoria.
But Australia’s federal states, despite the best efforts of Mr Morrison, disagree on approaches to interstate travel, including definitions of nonhot spots. Is the supposed three consecutive days with no community transmission sufficient? It is hard for New Zealand to deal with differing federated decisionmaking.
As Auckland moves to Level 1 and as much of Australia also “eliminates” the disease, the clouds over transtasman travel are breaking up. The time when New Zealand can ditch managed isolation for travel from certain parts of Australia might not be too far away. With Australians our biggest tourist market — more than 1.5 million visitor arrivals (39%) in the year ending November 2019 — that would be most welcome. Free travel for the sporting, entertainment and other industries would also be most beneficial.
Whatever does develop, however, will also be on notice. Extended bubbles could, and should, be shrunk at short notice should community transmission reemerge somewhere. That possibility, and the risk of being caught away from home after changed circumstances, will add a layer of caution to the plans for those venturing beyond their home country.
In the meantime, progress is, at best, halfsteam ahead. Week by week the situation can be monitored. Cautious advances can then be considered and actioned.