Otago Daily Times
The numbers tell a grim truth
Lynley Hood compares like with like and gets a reminder Covid19 is nothing like the flu.
IRETURNED from eight days in Louisiana on March 12, enriched with memories of music and food, of plantations, bayous and paddle steamers, and of all the festive and friendly folk who made my trip so memorable.
Back in Dunedin, the mood was far from festive. New Zealand had five confirmed cases of Covid19. The World Health Organisation had declared a global pandemic the previous day.
From a safe distance, family, friends and neighbours greeted me with one voice: “Welcome home,” they said. “We hope you’re going to selfisolate for 14 days.” So I did.
I was already selfisolating when the requirement for overseas arrivals to do so became official. I was still selfisolating when the lockdown enabled my holiday at home to continue uninterrupted.
Then as now, I check the Covid19 developments in New Zealand each day, and am reassured. Nobody knows how long this pandemic will last, but I’m confident the task of coping with whatever happens is in the best possible hands.
Then I check the Covid19 developments in Louisiana, and I worry. I worry about Nathan, who gave me his catfish recipe, and about Cynthia, who solved my booking glitch by giving me the glorious Napoleon Suite at Bienville House. I worry about Ashleigh, who introduced me to the realities of slavery at Whitney Plantation, and about Dave and his jazz band at Cafe Beignet. Are they OK?
As a scientist by training and temperament, I ignore the toxic lies of attentionseeking charlatans, and assume that all my intelligent, welleducated, normally rational acquaintances are doing the same. When I discover this isn’t always the case, I have to act.
I know that comparing the Covid19 death toll in New Zealand with the Covid19 death toll in Louisiana would be pointless. There are far too many variables to consider. But I can compare like with like. So that’s what I do.
To test the claim that Covid19 is ‘‘just like the flu’’, I compare the New Zealand death toll from Covid19 in
2020 with the New Zealand death toll from influenza and pneumonia in years past. Then I do the same for Louisiana.
For accurate data on influenza and pneumonia deaths, I go to the official mortality statistics for New Zealand and Louisiana. This annual information isn’t published until all the death certificates, coroners’ reports and relevant hospital records have been carefully evaluated, and the primary and underlying causes of every death that year have been conclusively determined — which can take a while.
That’s why, for both New Zealand and Louisiana, the most recent annual mortality statistics available online are for the years 2014 to 2017.
I discover that the total populations of New Zealand and Louisiana were similar during those years (NZ 4.61 million, Louisiana
4.66 million), as were the average number of deaths per year from influenza and pneumonia ( NZ 764, Louisiana 778).
But Covid19 has been with us for only seven months. At the time of writing — September 30
— the official death toll from Covid19 in New Zealand stands at 25, and the official death toll from Covid19 in Louisiana stands at 5308.
When I compare the Louisiana data for Covid19 (more than 5000 deaths in seven months) with the Louisiana data for influenza and pneumonia (between 700 and 800 deaths per year), I know beyond any shadow of doubt that Covid19 is nothing like the flu.