Act may set up southern base

ACT New Zealand is considering setting up a southern base to capitalise on its election night gains in Otago and Southland.

‘‘We were discussing that today,’’ party leader David Seymour said yesterday.

‘‘Because it’s such a large area, if you put an office in one place that’s not a help to most of the people.

‘‘It may be that an actual physical base is not what we need and it needs to be more of a popup presence.’’

The southernmost of Act’s 10 MPs is from Christchurch, but Mr Seymour said all members of his new caucus would be regular visitors to the South in the next three years.

Returns from individual polling booths have been released by the Electoral Commission, and show how marked the turnaround in political fortunes has been in the South, particularly for Act.

The party, which did not register a single party vote in multiple polling places in Otago and Southland in 2017, was up into the hundreds in several places.

Much of that vote appears to be disaffected National voters changing their allegiance, but Mr Seymour felt it was a stepping stone in the continued growth of Act.

‘‘I think what you have seen is a lot of brave new adapters vote for a party which has had extremely low support for a decade.

‘‘Now that that has happened, I think that there are a lot more people in a second wave who will take a second look at Act, and I think our potential is almost limitless.’’

Mr Seymour spent three days in Otago and Southland during the election campaign, even though Act did not contest all the southern electorates , something the party would rectify in 2023.

‘‘Our candidates in Waitaki and Taieri worked extremely well and extremely hard,’’ Mr Seymour said. The surge in support for Act helped contribute to Labour winning or coming a close second in polling places it lost by big margins three years ago.

However, in some places such as Balclutha — where almost 600 more people voted for Labour in 2020 than in 2017 — a decisive swing to Labour was also notable.

Labour national council OtagoSouthland representative Luke Nickholds said the party was yet to analyse the returns, but he suspected its improved performance in the provinces was because voters were able to connect with some talented

Labour Party candidates.

‘‘For example, Jon Mitchell in Southland and Liam Wairepo in Waitaki put in the hard yards going around every corner of their electorates, and having hardworking candidates gave us more opportunities to connect with people who care about the health of their communities and share our pride in Labour’s recent work.’’

Boundary changes also had an effect, Mr Nickholds believed, particularly Balclutha’s shift to Taieri.

‘‘Locals were able to get energised about the likely prospect of being represented by a Labour electorate MP, and Ingrid Leary made sure that everyone in town had multiple chances to hear how exciting a prospect that was.’’

ALL is not glum and blue for National in the wake of its weekend election thumping, despite first appearances.

The party has dived from 54 seats to 35. It secured a meagre 27% of the vote and was outpolled by Labour in the party vote in every South Island electorate.

National has had three leaders this year, was smeared by individual scandals and plagued by leaks and disunity. Its membership numbers are mediocre and it lacks purpose and direction. Meanwhile, Jacinda Ardern shines like a star, seemingly untouchable in these Covid times.

But politics, and life for that matter, has its rollercoasters. People, organisations and sports teams have their highs and their lows. Many sink, seemingly on their last legs, only to rise again.

National and Labour have both been topsyturvy in recent times.

National bombed to just 21% in the 2002 election and was in power in 2008. Labour was polling about 24% only a few months before the previous election.

National can reassure itself that even with unpopular Simon Bridges in charge — and with Ms Ardern already displaying her trademark positivity and empathy — it was polling between 40% and 45% earlier this year.

Covid changed everything. Ms Ardern was on television day after day as crisis prime minister. Such circumstances provide leaders, at least until they make a sustained mess of their responses, with the platform and purpose to rally the populace. People seek loyalty and unity behind their flag.

Remember, Mr Bridges had legitimate questions to ask, but the tone was incorrect and a scared nation did not want to hear.

Ms Ardern, despite significant mistakes, promoted the largely successful elimination strategy, using her communications skills superbly.

National, for its part, responded erratically, at times arguing for looser controls and sometimes for stricter measures. The public knew that National in charge would also make mistakes, and people suspected business interests would be promoted ahead of securing safety.

The leadership shambles and the loss of the experience, skills and public appeal of Paula Bennett, Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams then made a mockery of the ‘‘strong team’’ slogan.

In desperation, National turned to Judith Collins for leadership. She displayed pluck and vigour as National endeavoured to prevent a bloodbath. Despite the election rout, National would likely have fared even worse under Mr Bridges or Todd Muller.

The party, obviously, must review, reflect and rejuvenate. And, with the lack of suitable options, it has to put its faith in Ms Collins for now.

There are excuses for the dismal showing, and intriguing factors come into play. How many National voters swung to Labour, for example, to undercut potential leverage from the ‘‘dangerous’’ Greens?

Nevertheless, the scope of the red surge is positive for National in one way. That huge jolt should force it to do far more than tweak its structures, culture and candidate selection. It should engender a tightteam ethos, although that might be a vain hope. It should encourage the party to look at its raison d’etre; the likes of the place of individual responsibility, support for business and therefore employment and prosperity and compassionate, realistic conservatism.

There is scope to recapture the middle ground, those voters who supported former prime minister John Key. National can promote a programme and people who believe in fairness and a fair go, who will target taxes with prudence and who accept the diversity of modern New Zealand and climate and environmental challenges. There is no future in hardright policies or fundamentalist social attitudes.

National, as it confronts its myriad challenges, will also know that Labour’s support easily can evaporate as harsh economic times are predicted.

Maybe it will be at least six years before National regains power. But even the three years to the next election is a long time in politics.