Rule Britannia's Brexit folly
SO Brexit finally came to pass.
Britain voted to leave the European Union four and ahalf years ago by 52% to 48% and a ‘‘leave’’ campaign characterised by mistruths and exaggeration.
It was always going to end poorly, and it has.
At least, a nodeal crash out of the EU was averted.
Britain's middling place in the world slips a little more.
It becomes just that much poorer and that much less influential.
Britons might claim their corner for Rule Britannia.
They might puff their chests in independent and patriotic pride. They might think they never, never will be slaves to the European Parliament, the European Court of Justice and European rules and regulations.
But how hollow it all sounds. The tariff and quotafree accord might be a relief but the services sector, where London is preeminent, will suffer. It has already, amid the uncertainty and looming separation since 2016.
Travel, living and work freedoms have been sacrificed, and the Northern Ireland situation remains vexed.
As for Scotland, pressure for independence grows, not that Westminster will allow for a referendum any time soon. Scotland's citizens know the value of the EU, for all its weaknesses.
Nations tend to lose power and prosperity by degrees.
The undermining of Britain began with the Brexit vote itself, and will continue now the deed is done.
Any comparative decline is unlikely to be abrupt because the country will muddle through. Institutions, companies and individuals will adapt as they can.
The Office for Budget Responsibility puts the loss of GDP over 15 years compared to remaining in the EU at 4%. That is the equivalent of a vast amount of money and a bigger hit than the Covid19 pandemic.
Such loses will be incremental and across many fronts.
Brexit propagandists will, therefore, disguise the damage.
Nevertheless, the United Kingdom has shot itself in the foot and will hobble, even if the injury is far from fatal.
New Zealand exporters, meanwhile, now have two entities to deal with.
Major food exporters have more hassle and less flexibility as European quotas are split.
Maybe, some time down the track some sort of trade deal will be possible.
Perhaps, New Zealand's access will in time improve.
We can take little comfort from the preBrexit assurances from the politicians.
Led by the clownprince Prime Minister Boris Johnson, once a journalist sacked for making material up, he and the Brexiteers have already claimed so many benefits that failed to come to pass.
The irony is that so much of Britain's newfound freedom — ‘‘freedom in our hands’’ as Mr Johnson puts it — will be illusionary.
Britain still sits on the edge of the massive EU, depending on that block for most of its trade and wealth.
Britain, to retain its free access, will not be able to deviate in substantial ways from those rules and regulations. If it does, on for example environmental or labour standards, Europe has the right to question that access.
Meanwhile, Britain's businesses are burdened, at the very least, by much more paperwork.
And its citizens have lost much of their freedom to work, travel and live in Europe.
Britain will remain, as it was in the talks, the small and weak partner when further discussions and disputes arise. There is still much to be worked through, and the processes of dealing with and clarifying issues will not end.
Britain remains, despite any fantasies of freedom, shackled to the Continent.