‘Critical that we get ahead of it’: tougher rules urged
AUCKLAND: Leading Covid19 experts say it is highly likely New Zealand will see more incursions of the virus before vaccines can be introduced, unless harder new measures are taken.
University of Otago epidemiologist Prof Michael Baker put this likelihood down to three factors — soaring overseas transmission; a rise in cases at the border, including higherrisk variants; and the ongoing potential for breaches in New Zealand’s systems.
Prof Baker pointed out rates of Covid19 had risen significantly worldwide, jumping from 60 million to 80 million cases within just a month late last year — and now nearing 100 million.
Added to that was the new threat posed by new variants such as B.1.1.7, which has already spread quickly within the UK, and others observed in Brazil and South Africa.
The South African strain has been confirmed in the country’s latest community case — a 56yearold Northland woman who left managed isolation at Auckland’s Pullman Hotel before testing positive days later.
Contact tracers were scrambling to track down any people in the community who might have been exposed.
‘‘The rise is global cases means that people getting into a plane will reflect, in general terms, the level of transmission in the country they’re coming from,’’ Prof Baker said.
‘‘So that’s really raised the stakes — and we’ve been seeing a steady rise in the number of people testing positive on arrival in New Zealand over the last few months.’’
More than 100 cases have been detected at the border already this month, about the same number as recorded across the months of November and December respectively.
Eighteen cases were reported in a single day on January 7.
‘‘If you put this together with the fact the people will be increasingly infected with these more transmissible variants, it does markedly increase the risk of failure at the border, or in managed isolation and quarantine [MIQ].’’
The number of travellers coming into New Zealand remained close to MIQ capacity and that was expected to continue to at least this time next month.
‘‘This virus is evolving very rapidly and takes advantage of every opportunity it gets, so it’s critical that we get ahead of it,’’ Prof Baker said.
‘‘I think we need a major upgrade and our response to the border, or we really do risk having a serious outbreak . . . before we get a vaccine.’’
Prof Baker and colleagues have urged the Government to ‘‘turn down the tap’’ on travel from massinfected countries.
That included implementing a fiveday preflight hotel quarantine, with at least two tests, and reducing the number of available MIQ spaces.
Prof Shaun Hendy, whose Te Punaha Matatini team is currently modelling risk for the Government, agreed New Zealand could expect to see further breaches.
‘‘I definitely agree with Michael that, given current settings, we’re going to continue to see cases like the one we’ve just had,’’he said.
‘‘And there’s a chance that one of those will turn into an outbreak that’s more like the Auckland August cluster.’’
Prof Hendy has previously pointed out a community outbreak involving one of the new variants would likely require a full Level 4 lockdown. — The New Zealand Herald