Outlook

Commodity outlook for 2021. —

Dairy

Rabobank expected limited supply growth in competing regions, along with firm Chinese buying, to bring, not only a fifth consecutive profitable season for dairy farmers in 202021, but probably supportive pricing for early 202122.

Beef

Farm gate prices were expected to remain marginally below the fiveyear average through most of 2021 due to continuing food service restrictions, strong competition from South America, and a high New Zealand dollar.

Sheep

Weak food service and incomes in the EU and US would also affect demand for highervalue lamb cuts, pushing export returns below 201920 levels — but Chinese demand would help provide a healthy floor.

Wine

In 2021 significant challenges are expected in each of New Zealand’s three largest markets — the US, the EU and Australia. But those focused on retail channels are still well placed. Horticulture

Demand for quality and safe horticultural produce will remain strong. Covid disruptions to labour supply may take the shine off this opportunity, while navigation of geopolitical tensions will be key. Regulation

The agricultural sector will be hoping for greater clarity around how aspects of the freshwater reforms will be implemented in the future. But action is required, despite the uncertainty.