More lockdowns likely — Skegg
WELLINGTON: University of Otago epidemiologist Sir David Skegg says it is no surprise Auckland is back into Level 3 restrictions.
‘‘I don’t think we should see this as a surprise. I’ve been saying this all along. There will be more lockdowns in 2021, I’m afraid,” he said yesterday.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed on Sunday the latest cases had the UK variant, which Sir David said was more infectious and serious.
What was even more concerning was that they had been unable to trace any link to managed isolation and quarantine facilities (MIQ).
‘‘That immediately raises the question of how this person became infected and how many other people might’ve been infected in the chain that led to them.
‘‘I think the most likely thing — and obviously this is speculation — is that this woman was infected by one of her colleagues at work who has been going airside . . . and perhaps was in contact with someone who in transit who was infectious, but wouldn’t have been tested here in New Zealand.
‘‘But, of course, if it was someone passing through the airport, we may never find a link with the original case.’’
Ms Ardern, too, said that was a possibility and health staff would see if the genome sequence matched anyone who had recently transited through Auckland.
Sir David agreed with experts in saying that transmission through the laundry was unlikely.
He said the primary source might never be found, but it was crucial to know how many others were infected or were in the chain of transmission.
He said it was good to hear that two close contacts were so far not showing symptoms.
He said another scientist at Otago,evolutionary virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan raised an interesting point.
She reported that during our outbreaks last year, only 19% of people passed the virus on to someone else.
‘‘So that’s only one in five, and that partly reflects their behaviour [movements] . . . but also it will reflect their viral load and where it was in their system.’’
Although people were annoyed to hear New Zealand had been lucky, as officials took stringent measures, he said we had indeed been lucky in this sense, and the border failures had not become worse.
‘‘It’s not meaning it’s all luck, it’s certainly not, but a chance factor in how many people get infected.
“That again really points to the importance of tightening up our procedures, both in terms of protections at the border and also within the community.
‘‘There is such complacency. I hardly see anyone using the QR code as they go into places.
‘‘I think people really do believe we’ve somehow beaten this virus.
‘‘We’re having a wonderful time compared with the rest of the world, living a normal life, but we do have to accept this will only continue if do things right,’’ Sir David said.
Border workers were doing a good job and they should not be criticised if there was fault or gaps, but rather the system.
He said New Zealand was lagging behind parts of Australia.
‘‘For example, in NSW now there’s mandatory daily saliva testing of everyone who works at the border or hotels which are MIQ facilities.
‘‘But we’re still doing weekly tests, or in the case of this woman — who wasn’t herself exposed to travellers, but she was working with people who were — she was having fortnightly testing and because she happened to be away the day they came around, it went [on for] four weeks.’’
He said slowly piloting voluntary saliva testing once a week was not good enough.
‘‘We need to stop dragging our feet and get on to that quickly.’’
Ms Ardern said yesterday there were questions around the accuracy of saliva testing results, but officials were looking to use it in conjunction with nasal swab testing at higher risk MIQ.
Sir David agreed with comments from Prof Nick Wilson that even if there were shortcomings with saliva testing, doing it daily would compensate for that.
“If you’re doing it every day it’ll be better . . . Also, it’ll give us an earlier warning that we need to act.”
He said while the public health system was poorly prepared for the pandemic, the efforts of all those involved had paid off.
‘‘You just have to stand back and look at how our experience is compared with nearly every other country on the planet.
‘‘You have to be proud of what New Zealand has done.
‘‘Obviously, it’s the job of people like me to point out where there are deficiencies, but we need to keep a sense of proportion here . . . Please, let’s not be complacent,’’ Sir David said. — RNZ
❛ There is such complacency. I hardly see anyone using the QR code as they go into
places