Several possibilities could explain infection
AUCKLAND: Several possibilities could account for the source of the latest community outbreak, Covid19 data modelling expert Shaun Hendy says.
The infection could have been from air crew on a short international stopover, or from passengers or travellers in transit to Australia.
If the case was connected to Australia there was a chance of matching the genomic sequencing to Australia’s, which did detailed testing like New Zealand, he said.
One of the new cases was a pupil at Papatoetoe High School, and Dr Hendy said test results from the school and her mother’s workplace would provide more information. If cases were found at the school it could instead prove to be the original source of transmission, he said, noting that was purely speculative.
The Government’s decision to move to Alert Level 3 in Auckland was ‘‘prudent,’’ Dr Hendy said.
If a large cluster such as the August one eventuated, then a longer lockdown would be required, and people should be prepared for a lockdown of several weeks.
On the other hand, a clear link to the border and no further cases could mean alert levels dropping again, he said.
Two of the cases also visited the Taranaki region, but officials did not increase to Level 3 there as it was unlikely they were infectious when they visited.
Dr Hendy said New Plymouth was unlikely to be the source of transmission and was ‘‘downstream’’ from the cases.
New Zealand’s systems were good at handling downstream cases, so he believed keeping Taranaki in Level 2 was the right approach for now.