PM not keen on reinstating Alert Level 4

AUCKLAND: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has acknowledged Auckland’s Delta outbreak is growing at a pace ‘‘beyond what we have expected’’, after 65 fresh community cases were reported yesterday.

But she has signalled no intention of a temporary shift back to Alert Level 4 — something a top Covid19 modeller says could slow the spread while the city lifts its vaccination rate higher.

Speaking to reporters in Taranaki yesterday, Ms Ardern reaffirmed the Government had its threestep plan for Auckland, and the scope for stepdowns was being assessed week by week.

‘‘As you will have seen, of course, the outbreak has continued to grow — we expected that — but at a pace that is beyond what we have expected,’’ she said.

‘‘We did expect there would be some growth in the outbreak in recent days, of course, it has been growing faster than anyone would like to see.

‘‘What’s critical for us is we know we can continue to contain it and control it if everyone supports the effort by continuing to follow the restrictions.’’

She again urged Aucklanders — of whom just over twothirds are fully immunised and 88% have received their first shot — to get vaccinated.

This week, experts warned Auckland’s outbreak — now totalling 1855 — was on a trajectory where the number of new cases was doubling around every 12 days.

At that rate, the daily case count could reach 160 as soon as early November.

On Thursday, the Ministry of Health’s director of public health Dr Caroline McElnay said 170 to 180 new cases would put pressure on the contact tracing system.

The worsening numbers have prompted experts to call for a ‘‘circuitbreaker’’.

University of Otago epidemiologist Dr Amanda Kvaklsvig argues a move back to Level 4 is Auckland’s ‘‘best and probably only chance’’ for turning the trend around.

Dr Kvalsvig believes vaccination is not going to happen fast enough to reverse the trends, ‘‘and we need to buy time’’.

Covid19 modeller Professor Shaun Hendy echoed that call yesterday, and recommended a twoweek stint back at Level 4.

‘‘It’s not another go at elimination, it’s an attempt to slow the spread across and outside of Auckland, so that we can boost vaccine coverage,’’ he told the Herald.

‘‘If cases get away on us then it’ll be very tough to relax in any way for many months, so better to slow it now, boost vaccine rates, and relax with cases under control.’’

When the put Prof Hendy’s suggestion to Ms Ardern yesterday, she appeared to show no appetite for a shift back to tougher restrictions any time soon.

She said everyone wanted to bring the virus’ R value down — the latest consensus put this measure of average cases produced from one infection at 1.3.

‘‘The only question is what’s going to be most effective. Now we’ve been presented with data that tells us that actually things like level 3 — which you would expect, for instance, in workplaces might have an effect — has not been the primary source of growth,’’ Ms Ardern said.

‘‘It has been households meeting indoors with one another, which we know is outside the restrictions of both 3 and 4, but unfortunately has been an issue that we’ve seen throughout this outbreak.

‘‘So for us, it’s about what will work, what makes a difference. And we’ll keep asking our public health advisers for that advice and to date, they have not advised us to change the alert level.’’

Asked about what certainties she could give Aucklanders now into their ninth week of lockdown, Ms Ardern said the Government would next week be revealing a new alert level framework taking vaccine certificates into account.

‘‘And also giving an indication of how we see Auckland docking into that framework,’’ she added.

When asked if she could ensure Aucklanders could celebrate Christmas, Ms Ardern said: ‘‘This is my dayin, dayout focus. Of course I want Aucklanders to have Christmas, and I’m very determined that they will.’’

Asked why she hadn’t been in Auckland over the city’s lockdown, she said that was partly because of restrictions on movement.

‘‘That does not mean that I don’t have contact with those who are in Auckland, including family members, and that gives me just a sense of the impact of this lockdown,’’ she said.

‘‘I know how hard it is for those in Auckland — they have been in heavy restrictions for a long time. And that is why we are making every effort to make sure that we can safely step down those restrictions.’’

Ms Ardern’s visit to Taranaki included a stop at Eltham’s popup vaccination clinic at the Taumata Recreation Centre, where she surprised and chatted with locals coming in to get their jabs.

There were 2.6 million people fully vaccinated as of yesterday, 61.8% of the eligible population.