Monkeypox cases in some US cities show downward trend

CHICAGO: Monkeypox cases in some large United States cities appear to be declining, matching trends seen in Europe, and experts are cautiously optimistic the outbreak may have peaked in places hardest hit by the virus.

The World Health Organisation said yesterday that monkeypox cases reported globally declined 21% last week, after a monthlong trend of rising infections, but noted that US cases continued to rise.

However, some US experts believe cases are starting to decline based largely on immunity from prior infection and behaviour changes as awareness of the disease has grown.

That did not mean the disease would be contained, they cautioned.

Since late May, the US has recorded nearly 17,000 monkeypox cases. The outbreak, which so far has reached 80 countries outside of Africa, where the virus is endemic, is largely being transmitted among gay and bisexual men.

Monkeypox, which is spread through close contact with an infected individual and the pusfilled sores common to the disease, is rarely fatal.

Rollout of Bavarian Nordic’s Jynneos vaccine has been slow because of low supplies of the shot, which is also approved to prevent smallpox. But heightened awareness of the risks and increased immunity appear to be slowing the spread.

‘‘It’s very likely that the epidemic peaked as of last week,’’ Georgia State University School of Public Health infectious disease modeller Dr Gerardo Chowell said.

His latest model, released yesterday, forecasts a continued slowdown in new infections in the US over the next four weeks.

‘‘The declines should bring infections to ‘‘very low levels.’’

Kaiser Health News infectious disease epidemiologist and an editoratlarge Dr Celine Gounder said she believed behaviour change was driving down transmission, but cautioned that ‘‘people get fatigued by behaviour change’’ and transmission may go up again.

‘‘I suspect behaviour change will stick only until folks get two doses of the Jynneos vaccine,’’ she said.

Cases appear to be dropping in some large US cities hardest hit by the outbreak.

New York City health commissioner Dr Ashwin Vasan said in a tweet yesterday: ‘‘We are cautiously optimistic about this data, but will be closely following to ensure it is a sustained trend.’’

Likewise, data tracking monkeypox infections in San Francisco and Chicago show cases starting to drop over the past few weeks.

Chicago Department of Public Health spokesman James Scalzitti said the city might be turning a corner but more data was needed to confirm a downward trend.

According to data on the CDC’s website, the percentage of positive tests in public health and some commercial labs — an indicator of transmission rates — has fallen sharply, from 55% positive on July 16 to 24% on Thursday. — Reuters