Is Left getting left behind in mayoral race?
OPINION: Both mayors who have led Auckland Council since the 2010 amalgamation have been Labour politicians who secured the role in generously long campaign periods.
Len Brown launched his campaign a full year ahead of the inaugural 2010 election, and in 2016 Phil Goff launched his bid 11 months before the polling day.
This time, just eight months out from the October 8 election, things are looking less tidy on the Left, with Goff expected to be leaving, but won’t confirm this until later this month – a timeframe he has pointed to since last year.
Goff’s silence has caused a pileup on the Left, with two Labour candidates frustrated at the lack of clarity.
That has set up possibly the first vote-splitting duel for the most voted-for political job in the country.
Fa’anana Efeso Collins has two terms under his belt as a Manukau Ward councillor, and Richard Hills a similar time in the North Shore ward.
Both have explored the idea of a mayoral tilt since the first half of last year, as talk circulated that Goff – a veteran Labour politician – might move on to a possible diplomatic post overseas.
Hills, who chairs the environment and climate change committee, is understood to have a campaign team in place and to be liaising with Goff, but won’t talk turkey until the mayor declares. Collins decided valuable campaigning time was slipping away and publicly announced his intention to run on the basis that Goff wouldn’t.
Collins has wanted a proper selection process, run by Labour, to choose a successor – but regardless is currently enjoying a clear run in the media and public discussion as the only Leftleaning candidate so far.
A selection process may still occur, but the Labour Party won’t even talk about a post-Goff future until Goff himself declares his intentions.
After a lifetime in politics, Goff is entitled to choose his moment to move on, but he is not making life easy for the Left as the election gets closer.
In a city with 1 million voters, money, time and profile are a serious mayoral candidate’s friends.
In 2010, Brown had them all, entering the contest as the outgoing mayor of Manukau City with Labour backing, campaign funds, and a year to overpower the Centre-Right’s John Banks.
Brown got the nod from Labour in a short selection process against outgoing Auckland Regional Council chairman Mike Lee, launched his campaign as an independent, and then got party endorsement.
In 2016, tarnished by a publicly admitted extra-marital affair, Brown was encouraged by the machine that had supported him to announce he would not run again.
That meant Goff could launch with almost a year to campaign.
So far, Auckland’s mayor has been a politician who could cross the red-blue party divide – winning both the Labour strongholds in the west and south, and picking up enough support in National strongholds in the north and east.
Both Collins and Hills have strong credentials and constituencies, but neither has the region-wide profile that comes from the lengthy, high-profile political careers of those they seek to succeed.
The upside for the Left in this year’s mayoralty race is that the mainstream Centre-Right machine with its National party supporters has yet to land a candidate.
Restaurateur Leo Molloy hopes to appeal to all and has billboards up, a campaign bus in the wings, and experienced supporters.
Hibiscus Coast’s Jake Law is also having a tilt, as are Craig Lord and Ted Johnston.
If Labour wants to hang on to the mayoralty of the country’s biggest city, it has (behind the scenes) some swift housekeeping to do. However, in a city where only 35 per cent bothered to vote in 2019, a wider mayoral scrap might be just what local democracy needs.