Why Russia’s retreat from Ukraine is not all it seems
As 100,000 troops trudge back to their barracks in Russia’s heartlands, one may be forgiven for thinking Vladimir Putin is in retreat. But all is never as it seems in the forgotten war of attrition on the fringes of Europe.
Much reading of the tea leaves has taken place since Putin, master of deception, moved columns of his armed forces close to Ukraine’s border. As they begin to slowly return, the Kremlin may feel it has got what it wanted out of the latest round of sabre-rattling.
Putin has achieved three goals. First, a phone call from US president Joe Biden, in which the American leader urged a de-escalation — an acknowledgement at least of Putin’s parade of firepower.
After heavy criticism from Biden’s in the first weeks of his presidency, sending forces to the border was a warning: don’t underestimate us. “Russia was looking for ways to put pressure on the West, and it found it by threatening to stir up the hostilities in Ukraine — and it worked,” military analyst Alexander Golts said. The day before Putin pulled his troops out he warned the West of unspecified “red lines” and said it would come to regret crossing them as it “never regretted anything else before”.
The Biden phone call and the headlines that went with it point to the second goal of Putin’s threat of war: distraction.
The whole affair has offered the Kremlin a welcome diversion from the plight of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose deteriorating health has dominated Russian social media and indeed international news.
Now that Putin’s nemesis has been examined by civilian doctors and Russians have let off the steam by rallying in his support on Thursday, the Kremlin has some welcome breathing space. Navalny’s movement has lost momentum too.
Finally, the military build-up can be seen as a show of the ankle to Ukraine. Was this Moscow’s payback for Kiev’s growing assertiveness and its decision in March to shut down TV channels owned by a pro-russian oligarch?
As fears recede, many argue that the menace of Putin’s troops was nothing more than a threat. Several hundred armoured vehicles may now be stationed 100km from the border and could stay there until September, making some analysts nervous.
But in reality there is little domestic appetite for foreign policy forays. Russia’s swift and bloodless annexation of Crimea in 2014 sent Putin’s approval ratings soaring but that euphoria has long worn off.
A few hours after the pullback was announced, Putin responded to an invitation from Ukraine’s president to meet him in the war zone if he truly wanted to negotiate a peace deal.
Ever the troll, Putin said Volodymyr Zelenskiy was most welcome in Moscow — a meeting that would be a political suicide for any Ukrainian leader at this point.
Telegraph Group Ltd