Everything is different this time around!
The housing market may have lost the media spotlight, but it continues to be under the heat lamp! While everyone’s eyes are firmly fixed on the news about the latest covid lockdown, the housing crisis still boils away in the background regardless.
There are a few important factors to heed about the Real Estate marketplace that are notably different this time around.
1. Stock is low. Going into this lockdown we have stock supplies that are critically at recordbreaking low numbers. The last lockdown at level 4 commenced with much more reasonable offerings of available properties.
2. Outrageous predictions by economists that house prices are going to fall are missing. The first lockdown sparked all kinds of fear-mongering. Who can forget? Apparently, there was going to be a critical price adjustment. Didn’t happen then, won’t happen now.
In fact, I think this bodes for some quite interesting predictions going forward based on our previous experiences. More on that later.
3. Money is still cheap. The reserve bank has held off the interest rate rise that was previously threatened. I am suspicious that the proposed rate hike is just another tactic to spook the real estate market into some kind of price softening.
4. The last lockdown commenced at the end of the seasonally busy time of Autumn. People had largely made their move prior to winter. This time, however, we are at the commencement of arguably the busiest season. Springtime. A market that real estate agents anticipate lots of transition and see as the proverbial hay-making time of year.
If we end up hunkered down for a long period of time, I mean weeks, then I would suggest the housing market will be under enormous pressure. Especially if the allimportant construction sector is once again hampered. That coupled with current stock shortages, which will no doubt be even lower than they are now, then quite frankly, we are in for a rough ride. If you’re a buyer at that time, you better have more money than the next competing buyer. It will be vicious.
Then there will be the ‘get out of town while you can’ people. Most likely Aucklanders. More staunch believers in the ‘Big City’ life will change their minds and head for the regions should the lockdown apply to them longer than the rest of us. The county life will again beckon its call.
Be it sooner, or later, whenever we come out of the lockdown, you can bet your real estate investment dollars that the team of five million will get right back into their househunting habits. And when you do, we will be here. Cars and shoes are polished and ready to negotiate the best of the flourishing market.