Covid prediction

New Zealand’s ongoing Covid-19 wave could peak by new year, with fewer than 10,000 daily infections — but much of that hinged on how Kiwis behave ahead of Christmas, a modeller says. The Ministry of Health is continuing to report thousands of fresh cases — around a quarter of them reinfections — as the country moves through the second of two over-lapping, late-year bumps. As of Monday, when 6000 new daily cases were registered, the rolling seven-day average stood at more than 4040. That was around 1000 more than the average at the start of October, and three times what it was at midseptember.