Turkey looks to take advantage of Russia’s distraction
Isis announced this week that its leader had been killed in Syria, while the Us-backed group that destroyed its so-called caliphate in the country declared it was halting all counterterrorism operations.
This was not because Isis no longer poses a threat, but because the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces — a group labelled terrorists by Ankara — was facing Turkish bombardment and the threat of another invasion.
Enraged by a recent Istanbul bombing blamed on Kurdish militants, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, promised this month that his tanks and soldiers would soon cross the border to “root out” the Kurdish forces that Ankara labels terrorists linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
When Erdogan last threatened to invade this April, the combined threat of US sanctions and the persistent urging of Russia and Iran were enough to halt his plans. This time, it is different.
Russia, a crucial source of support to Bashar Al-assad, the Syrian president, since 2015, is now preoccupied with its Ukraine invasion.
Turkey, meanwhile, calculates that it has freer rein to pursue its ambitions in Syria, as Ankara is suddenly indispensable to the West again. As a Nato member, Turkey is able to block, or accede to, Finland and Sweden joining the defence alliance. Equally, Turkish military support to Ukraine, in particular the Bayraktar TB2 drones, makes the US less willing to challenge Ankara.
Erdogan apparently feels comfortable enough with his increased leverage to pronounce that his Syrian
offensive would begin “at the most convenient time” — leading observers to wonder whether he was simply seeking to rally his nationalist base ahead of elections next June.
The US, Russia and the Syrian government have offered only mild responses. The US, which supports the SDF in the north-east, has “urged an immediate de-escalation”, warning that Turkish air strikes “directly threatened” about 1000 American soldiers stationed in Syria.
Amid reports that more than a dozen Syrian soldiers were killed in Turkish strikes, Ayman Sousan, the Syrian deputy foreign minister, called Turkey’s escalation “unacceptable” but urged “co-operation”.
He was speaking at a meeting of
Turkish, Syrian, Iranian and Russian officials in Kazakhstan, where Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia’s special presidential envoy for Syria, similarly called on Turkey “to show restraint”.
With its forces mired in Ukraine, Russia may have downsized its Syrian deployment by at least 1200 men Western diplomats and an Israeli official recently said.
This leaves Damascus feeling exposed, according to a Syrian foreign ministry official. “The Turkish desire to start a military offensive is opportunistic and mainly because of Russia’s indifference due to Ukraine,” said the official.
And since Russia took back an S-300 anti-aircraft missile battery it had “gifted” to Syria, Israeli air strikes
appear to have increased.
Amid the instability, it came as a surprise to all when the Isis announced that its leader Abu alhassan al-hashimi al-qurayshi had been killed in Syria. But if the death of another leader suggested a terror group on the ropes, a Turkish invasion could offer it the breathing room it needs to bounce back, General Mazloum Abdi, the head of the SDF, said last week.
For now, Turkey was gauging the reaction of the US and Russia, he said.
“Turkey has announced its intent and is now feeling things out. The beginning of an invasion will depend on how it analyses the positions of other countries.”
— Telegraph Group Ltd