The top six storylines for 2018
OPINION: Well, that was 2017. The year when the All Blacks were humbled by the Lions, but bounced back to sweep another Rugby Championship and November tour, the Crusaders finally returned to the Super Rugby mountaintop, Canterbury continued their provincial domination and the Black Ferns were again crowned world champions.
Now that’s all consigned to the history bin let’s cast our minds forward to 2018, when we will find out a lot about plenty, but probably nothing more anticipated than the long-awaited matchup between Steve Hansen’s All Blacks and Eddie Jones’ England next November.
Before that we will have a revamped Super Rugby, a June tour by France and another Rugby Championship where the Wallabies and Springboks will attempt to bridge that great divide on the All Blacks.
In no particular order, here are my top six rugby things, from a New Zealand perspective, to look forward to in 2018: HALFBACK IDOL
Who steps up to fill Tawera Kerr-Barlow’s boots as the All Blacks’ third No 9 behind Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara? There is no clear-cut candidate right now, and probably won’t be until the back end of Super Rugby.
Contenders? New Blues skipper Auggie Pulu, Brad Weber and Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi at the Chiefs and Mitch Drummond and Bryn Hall at the Crusaders probably head the queue.
Weber, at his best, appeals with his speed and swiftness of delivery, but has to refind his mojo after the broken leg that wrecked his 2017 season. Pulu has the toughness of a Kerr-Barlow, Drummond is a solid all-round operator and Tahuriorangi has a ton of upside. THE RIGHT WING TUSSLE
Izzy Dagg, Nehe MilnerSkudder or Waisake Naholo? Or would you even throw a Seta Tamanivalu or Matt Duffie into that equation?
Hansen has a big call to make. But he’ll look at it as one of those positive problems, and enjoy seeing what the contenders have to offer. The one percenters are likely to decide the pecking order among three or four world-class contenders.
I’d have a fully fit MilnerSkudder a fraction ahead of Naholo just because of the complementary qualities he offers to left wing cert Rieko Ioane.
We discount Dagg at our peril, of course, and he will have a great platform on which to show his stuff behind that great Crusaders pack. HOOKING INTO IT
We can only hope that Dane Coles comes back bigger and stronger than ever from his devastating knee injury. But he’ll miss the first half of 2018, and it opens things up at hooker behind the well-performed Codie Taylor.
The third hooker spot (or second one if Coles has any issues getting back for the test season) looks wide open.
Nathan Harris has the inside running, and it was interesting to hear Hansen at tour end nominating him as one of the players who had surprised him with ‘‘massive strides’’ taken.
But Asafo Aumua clearly holds interest and in Coles’ absence at the Canes he’s likely to get plenty of chances to showcase those skills in Super Rugby alongside the capable Ricky Riccetelli. Throw in a Liam Coltman and maybe even Leni Apisai and it’s a position of interest. MEN ON THE MOVE
Damian McKenzie will play mostly at No 10 for the Chiefs in 2018, and that will be watched closely by the All Blacks.
Behind Beauden Barrett things remain wide open at firstfive. They fancy McKenzie as an impact man capable of covering 10 and 15, Lima Sopoaga remains an option and Richie Mo’unga is probably just one more strong Super campaign away from entering the fray.
Just where they see Jordie Barrett in 2018 is going to be interesting too. With Ben Smith back, and McKenzie hovering as the potential bench cover, fullback could be well covered. Barrett’s versatility will be valuable, and where he plays in that talented Canes backline could be vital. COACHES UNDER THE GUN
As Tana Umaga enters his third season with the Blues, it’s hard not to have him as the coach feeling the most pressure in 2018.
The Blues have been improving, but it’s been marginal, and they have remained Kiwi conference cellar-dwellers under the former All Blacks skipper.
Umaga has also yet to solve the long-standing mystery of the Blues culture, or their lack of one. They clearly have talent, but lack the nous, smarts and teamwork to figure out the tough moments.
He’s made a big call instilling the fiery Auggie Pulu as his skipper, and its success or otherwise may go a long way to deciding whether Umaga makes the improvements his many critics will demand in 2018.
There are also new faces at the helm of the Highlanders (Aaron Mauger) and Chiefs (Colin Cooper). Both inherit well established teams with strong identities. AND ELSEWHERE ...
Let’s not forget that South Africa and Australia are now down to just four Super Rugby teams apiece. You have to figure that concentrates their talent better, and lifts standards.
One can only hope so. Maybe we will even see an Aussie team beat a Kiwi one in 2018.
Also there have to be improvements from the Sunwolves and Jaguares. Both have failed to live up to expectations, and may need to dial up their competitiveness lest they, too, start facing that hovering axe.
In June, don’t expect France to be anywhere near full strength; and in November we may get the first real gauge of the All Blacks’ chances of a World Cup threepeat when they meet England and Ireland on consecutive Saturdays. Bring it on.