Changes among personnel right for Dunedin test
STEVE Hansen is a master at taking care of today while also chipping away at tomorrow. It is one of the reasons the All Blacks have remained so consistently good under his watch.
In previous eras the All Blacks have encountered slippage at times when key players have retired or shipped off overseas, or other disruptions have cropped up.
But under Hansen the form line has been remarkably smooth. And the reason for that is the master coach is always preparing his next generation well before the current crop have run their course. As a result, his transitions are as seamless as they can be.
Sometimes injuries force him into that situation, as they did last year when he had to plunge as deep into the talent pool as he ever has to deal with a shocking run of breakage. But even when his hand isn’t forced, Hansen is always looking for the next Rieko Ioane, the next Aaron Smith and the next Beauden Barrett to come spinning off the production line.
It’s why next week’s third test against France in Dunedin carries importance, regardless of the state the tourists are in. (Do not be surprised, as Jacques Brunel’s men approach the finish point of their ridiculously long rugby year, if they already have one foot on the plane home).
For the reasons stated above, we can expect Hansen to make a few judicious changes to his lineup, after retaining the same 23 for Wellington for the first time since the 2015 World Cup.
It’s what third tests in June are set up for. By then the tourists have usually been sapped of all resistance and their summers beckon. They are ripe for the plucking, which means changing lineups carries a little less risk than it might earlier in the series.
Looking at the last five June series under Hansen tends to back up the view that some well- planned tinkering could take place.
In 2012, Hansen made six changes to his starting XV between the second and third tests against Ireland, in 2013 it was five for France and in 2016 another five for Wales which included the launch of the Beauden Barrett era at No 10.
The notable exception was in 2014 against England when just two changes were made to the starting XV between the second and third internationals, including the return at No 8 of Kieran Read. Given the first two tests had been decided by a collective six points, you can probably judge for yourself the reason there.
And, of course, last year’s British and Irish Lions series carried a much different set of tensions, not the least being that the series was tied heading back to Eden Park. Hansen made three changes for the decider in Auckland, but two were enforced through Ioane’s illness and Sonny Bill Williams’ suspension.
Which brings us to Dunedin. What can we expect in terms of tweaks?
Well, providing everything went to plan at the Cake Tin, and all things being equal with injuries, he could weigh giving Nathan Harris a run at hooker, Vaea Fifita at either No 6 or lock, TJ Perenara at halfback, Richie Mo’unga at No 10, Waisake Naholo on the wing, and Williams and Jack Goodhue in midfield.
Maybe he leaves Nehe MilnerSkudder to continue rebuilding his form and confidence with the Canes in Super Rugby for now.
Of the above, giving Harris some starter’s minutes at hooker makes a lot of sense. Codie Taylor is in brilliant form, but is likely to face a heavy load at the back end of Super Rugby and could benefit from a lighter week.
Williams also cries out for a return, given they’ve brought him back so quickly from his knee procedure, and Naholo deserves a chance to show his stuff in this series, and under the roof on his home track makes all sorts of sense.
Whether Hansen unleashes Mo’unga for a test at No 10 might depend on Hansen’s willingness to roll the dice, but you have to find out some time, and in the case of the young Crusader now might be as good as any.
Goodhue’s case is similar. If he’s fit, he’s surely worth a look now. Elsewhere they would lose little by starting Perenara at halfback (and maybe bringing Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi off the bench) and they might choose this week to continue the development of Fifita.