Who’s super hot and who’s not?
Sunday Star-Times’ rugby experts give their views on the Super Rugby Pacific season, making their picks on who’ll be champs and who is going to get a wooden spoon.
Fingers crossed, Super Rugby kicks off next weekend, with the New Zealand teams ensconced in their Queenstown bubbles and the Western Force stuck in Australia’s eastern states.
It’s not the launch for the next chapter of Super Rugby that everyone was hoping for – especially with the added 11th-hour complication of Moana Pasifika’s opening match against the Blues next Friday being postponed after seven players tested positive for Covid-19 – but with the South African teams gone and Fiji Drua and Moana Pasifika joining the comp, it should hopefully lead to a more interesting competition.
To kick things off, three Sunday News rugby writers answer questions about the season ahead.
Which New Zealand coach is under the most pressure going into the season?
Paul Cully: None in the classic sense of a coach fighting for his job, but Jason Holland will clearly be keen to improve a Hurricanes outfit that has plenty of X-factor talent but struggled for consistency last year. They were the weakest Kiwi side last year, and a repeat performance in 2022 wouldn’t go down well in the capital.
Marc Hinton: Has to be Leon MacDonald. With that roster, the trans-Tasman triumph in 2021, Beauden Barrett back and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck added, all the media attention that will come with being based (eventually) in the Big City, it’s title or bust this year. And he’ll be the first to admit that the road to the title still runs through his old mob at the Crusaders.
Richard Knowler: Leon MacDonald. Given the Blues won the Trans-Tasman title last year, and will have Beauden Barrett and
Tuivasa-Sheck on the roster, supporters will be desperate for MacDonald to add another trophy to prove it was no fluke.
How will Moana Pasifika and Fiji Drua go?
PC: They are going to struggle and some weeks may be awful, but patience and a sense of perspective will be needed when assessing them in 2022. Regardless of results, if they show demonstrable signs of improvement by the back half of the season, that’ll be the pass mark for me.
MH: Not well. Though the Drua will almost certainly have a better debut season than their mates across the Tasman. As admirable as the intent is with both franchises, circumstances have conspired against them building the squads they would have wanted. The Drua appear better placed thanks to Fiji’s homegrown talent pipeline, but absence of home games will remove a key advantage. Moana Pasifika look up against it with a squad of journeymen, castoffs and wannabes. Patience will be key with the new fullahs.
RK: The Drua will hopefully bowl a few of the Australian teams. That will be a prerequisite if they’re to qualify for the topeight. Moana Pasifika are a longterm project. Let’s leave it at that. Cheque, please.
How will Roger TuivasaSheck’s switch to rugby work out?
PC: It’s hard not to think he has been thrown a hospital pass in the No 12 jersey. Every 110kg loosie in Aotearoa will want a piece of him as he tries to jink his way through rugby’s toughest channel, and you do have to wonder if the No 14 jersey is a better fit. He’s a brilliant player but take a look at the sheer size of the athletes playing rugby compared to rugby league these days.
MH: Well. He’s too talented, too diligent and too motivated not to make some sort of a success of the move. And given what he will have around him in that Blues backline, he should have every opportunity. Whether it’s well enough to play his way into the All Blacks is another question. But I know for a fact they will be watching him closely, and have an open mind around his potential inclusion.
RK: Given RTS will be operating outside Barrett, there’s reason to be optimistic. Accuracy in defence is a must in the midfield. Get that right, and his confidence will soar. If media reports are correct, it won’t be for a lack of trying.
Will the Australian teams be more competitive this year?
PC: Given the long-term viability of the competition depends on it, NZ Rugby will hope so. But is improvement a guarantee? No. While the Brumbies have a good program and the Reds have some promise under Brad Thorn, there are still a lot of players in Australia who seem to shrink the moment they take to the field against NZ sides. The revamped draw and diet of all-Australian derbies at the start of the campaign might not help them either. MH: It’s a low bar. Last year Aussie sides won two of 25 TransTasman matches, which reflects the enormous gulf in talent between the two nations (and how well Dave Rennie does to even run out a competitive Wallabies side). I don’t see a big improvement in this ratio, but probably a marginal one. Small steps and all that.
RK: For the integrity of the competition,
let’s hope so. The Reds may be the hottest ticket from over yonder.
Which young New Zealand player will everyone be talking about at the end of the season?
PC: The footwork and sheer pace of new Highlanders wing Vereniki Tikoisolomone will get people excited. He could be anything under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium. [Coach] Tony Brown has already compared him to Buxton Popoali’i, but Tikoisolomone probably has even more straight-line speed and finishing power. Brown has indicated that Tikoisolomone and Mosese Dawai will initially be fighting for one spot in the Highlanders’ back three, but as the season progresses could we see them both unleashed?
MH: At 22, Caleb Clarke still qualifies as young, right? After his sevens fiasco, he has a lot to prove. He’s shed the kilos and
trained the house down over an extended off-season, and looks set to reap the rewards at the end of that talented Blues backline. All the way back into black. Honourable mention: his Blues teammate Zarn Sullivan. Can he defy the sophomore curse?
RK: Wing Kini Naholo (Crusaders) could be worth keeping tabs on. Getting minutes in a squad cluttered with talent will be his problem.
Which All Black has the most to prove?
PC: Starting props Joe Moody and Nepo Laulala. Watching Tadhg Furlong’s extraordinary performance for Ireland v Wales last weekend was another reminder about how far New Zealand has fallen behind in the tight five. Furlong is redefining what it means to be a prop – and that’s something New Zealand used to have a mortgage on.
MH: Plenty in this category. Every prop has ground to make up, as do the under-performing second-rowers. But you can’t look past two recent skippers in the Sams, Cane and Whitelock, for real men-on-a-mission storylines. Cane has been overtaken by Dalton Papalii and has work to do now he’s finally fully fit, while Whitelock, legend that he is, must shake the theory he’s a fading force. Both are champion men who should relish the challenge. RK: TJ Perenara. The decision to play in Japan, and whether to play in the NRL, was possibly a distraction for the halfback in 2021. Competition for the No 9 job remains red-hot.
Who will play in the final and who’ll win it?
PC: The Crusaders and the Blues, and the Crusaders will win it. MH: Crusaders v Blues. And whoever has home advantage will take the honours. That’s probably the red-and-blacks because, well, they still have an awesome squad and the best culture in the comp.
RK: Crusaders to beat the Blues. Providing first-five Richie Mo’unga stays fit and motivated.
And the wooden spoon?
PC: The Fijian Drua, who in time will be a success, but they are coming from a long way back in their first season.
MH: Moana Pasifika. Just not enough top-end talent.
RK: Moana Pasifika. But their entry was long overdue.