When the tourists arrive, will anyone be there to greet them?
All tourists are now welcomed back and economists think they might be our best shot at getting out of a recession. But, operators say tourism recovery will be slow. Kelly Dennett reports.
When the Pacific Explorer docks at Auckland in two weeks, Kevin O’Sullivan will be there welcoming passengers. The New Zealand Cruise Association chief executive admits that in March 2020 – the last time cruise ships docked in New Zealand – he was calling the border closures a ‘‘short-term pause’’ with no thought he would ‘‘be sitting here in July 2022 waiting for the first ship to come back’’. ‘‘It has been difficult, quite depressing at times, but onwards and upwards. I’m really looking forward to it.’’
While Kiwis, Australians and Americans, have propped up tourism since April and May, from today tourists and students not eligible under a visa waiver scheme can apply to come, and cruise ships can re-enter.
The Pacific Explorer will dock in August, but the season will really pick up from October, and
O’Sullivan says occupancy on even the larger ships is high – about 70% to 80% – while the smaller ones are full. But it’s what tourists will find on dry land that worries him as hospitality and tourism struggle with staffing.
O’Sullivan is not the only one wondering, after more than two years of no migration, skills shortages and sickness, will operators have the capacity to service tourists properly?
Scenic Hotel Group general manager Karl Luxon said agents were fielding cancellations because operators were struggling to find staff. ‘‘When we speak to operators, they’re going, ‘we can’t find the tour bus driver and the guides’.’’
General Travel executive director Anna Black was in Los Angeles last week, alongside Tourism NZ and other operators, touting Aotearoa as open for tourism as the border officially reopens. Feedback from agents there was positive, says Black, and that’s reflected in their bookings. The inbound tour operator is ‘‘really, really busy’’ for the rest of the year.
But, says Black: ‘‘We’re worried about service delivery. As the middle man, we are [only] working with operators we know and trust are going to make it happen.’’
Southern Crossings luxury travel service provider director Sarah Farag agrees.
‘‘If we can’t get them a hotel room, a guide, a booking at a restaurant – if we’re not serviced at the level and standard we’re used to, we will say no first.
‘‘What we need are guides who speak in different languages. We need to be letting people in, we need more [workers] and we need them now... it’s very hard to turn the generator back on.’’
It’s the glint of a jewel in the tourism crown that economists are pinning their hopes on to
avoid a recession. This week Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said tourism would drive a temporary and uneven bounce in economic activity over summer, and predicted it would push GDP growth. But even then, Olsen saw challenges ahead, suggesting visitor numbers could be hampered by the global economy and fuel prices.
‘‘And the tourism sector could
struggle to meet the lift in demand given the lack of available workers.’’
Pre-Covid, New Zealand welcomed about 50,000 working holidaymakers annually, but by the end of June Immigration New Zealand had received 15,695 applications – of those only 10,146 had been approved. Meanwhile, students have been unable to work and live here, and Kiwis are
heading overseas to sunnier pastures.
A tourism industry report released on Friday revealed about a third of businesses were ready to cap occupancy or customer numbers, or reduce service or offerings, to cope. Half of those surveyed weren’t confident about attracting or retaining staff.
Brian Westwood, president of the Backpacker Youth and
Adventure Tourism Association, says staffing will be the biggest handbrake for recovery and rejects calls that raising wages is the solution. He says workers simply aren’t there, and businesses will have to adapt.
However, as tourists and locals have seen the world without crawling tourism, he believes demand for a more sustainable model is well-timed. ‘‘A lot of
consumers are going, ‘We don’t want to have that big an impact on the destinations we visit, how can we do it better?’’’
Tourism Export Council chief executive Lynda Keene said the return of working holidaymakers ‘‘cannot come soon enough’’. ‘‘From a business viability perspective, there is still a long way to go for businesses to get in the black. Just because the border is now open does not mean businesses are back and trading to full capacity. This will take time.’’
Keene said over winter, skiing destinations like Queenstown and Ruapehu had seen plenty of Australian tourists but other centres and regions, like the West Coast, Auckland and Wellington, may experience more of a trickle.
Other concerns cited by industry members included airfare prices and restricted timetables, Immigration’s ability to keep up with visa applications, and the ratio of tourists who would be holding credit, meaning some business would not be new.
But, businesses were optimistic. Karl Luxon was busy planning to reopen the West Coast’s Te Waionui Forest
Retreat, which had been shut for two years but was welcoming guests back in October, and Sarah Farag says challenges facing the industry are solvable: ‘‘There’s not much we can do about a closed border.’’