Pitiful turnout but grumpy electorate sends a message about sticking to core business
The importance of local body election results on the central government poll late next year cannot be understated.
Actually, it definitely can. Just a little joke there.
Nevertheless, there has been a sweep of local councils and mayoralties around the country by right and centre-right candidates – as well as an interesting swathe of BlueGreens through councils.
More centre-right sort of figures won in Dunedin, Christchurch, Nelson and Auckland. The big outlier was Tory Whanau, a Green, being elected in Wellington. But that both reflects Wellington’s idiosyncrasies, and the doleful other candidates including
current Labour MP Paul Eagle, who received a pretty halfhearted endorsement from fellow MPs.
While there isn’t any great lesson for Labour in central government, there are some pointers about public mood. It appears that a) incumbents are under the cosh and that b) voters appear attracted to people who plan to stick to core business
(which now most often includes climate change).
This is not to say that all the candidates who now find themselves chairing or taking part in council meetings will be better than the people they defeated, but it does suggest that the left looks out of favour.
There are a couple of important caveats here. First, at an estimated 40%, the voter turnout is roughly half that of central government elections. Second, local government elections tend not to be indicative of much nationally. Labour and the centre-left did very well in the 2013 and 2016 local elections, but that did not translate into a boilover of votes in the general.
There also seems to be a bit of grumpiness in the electorate in which an ‘I’ll-turn-the-jointaround’ sort of message resonates. In Wellington, Whanau won on a platform for change.
Wayne Brown in Auckland and Phil Mauger in
Christchurch ran on similar campaigns although form a different political backdrop.
Nevertheless, this result will have Labour a bit worried. The sweep up and down the country suggests – at least to a degree – that there are voters who are ready to change and keen to lean into candidates with claimed competence or who stick to the knitting.
If translated nationally, this would go very well for National and ACT, but the question now is whether Christopher Luxon will be able to translate that feeling into votes. The door is open, it may be now National’s to push upon.
Or it might be a lot of local voters hacked off with their various councils.
‘The question now is whether Christopher Luxon will be able to translate that feeling into votes.’