Covid a factor in making Africa less democratic and safe
A new study of Africa’s 54 countries has found that much of the continent is less safe and less democratic than it was a decade ago, a marker of worrying political trends that accelerated over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic.
A surge in military coups and the spread of armed conflicts now threaten to stall or even reverse years of political progress across the continent.
The index, put out every two years by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, said democratic participation and ‘‘security and rule of law’’ had deteriorated, with the ‘‘pace of decline accelerating since 2017’’. An estimated 70% of Africa’s population live in countries classified as less safe now than in 2012.
The report pointed to 23 successful or attempted coups since 2012, and eight takeovers by juntas since 2019. Mali and Burkina Faso, West African neighbours once known for their relative political stability, have recently experienced two coups each.
‘‘This phenomenon of coups d’etat that was common in the ’80s seems to have become fashionable again in certain parts of Africa,’’ said Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born British billionaire who has used his wealth to promote democracy and good governance in Africa.
The end of the Cold War saw a wave of democratisation across Africa. However, some governments hid behind the fig leaf of electoral democracy as they consolidated a more autocratic grip.
Then came the pandemic, which, as the Mo Ibrahim Foundation noted, led to ‘‘a worrying trend of state-backed violence’’ along with accelerated rates of violence against civilians and armed conflict. Insurgencies and wars metastasised from the
Sahel to the Horn of Africa, as well as in regions further south. Where there were not deepening conflicts, there were deepening autocratic regimes.
‘‘Even before the pandemic, an increasing number of African heads of state had moved to undermine term limits or rig elections to remain in power,’’ said the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank. ‘‘But Covid-19 has given them greater leverage, providing further pretext for postponing elections in Somalia and Ethiopia, muzzling opposition figures in Uganda and Tanzania, and imposing restrictions on media across the continent.’’
The enforcement of pandemic restrictions was often brutal, giving rise to demonstrations in countries including Kenya and South Africa.
According to the foundation, there have been marked improvements in other continental indicators, including advances in health and education, equality for women, and infrastructure for development.