Assad’s gas stockpiles still unknown quantity
GROWING FEAR that war in Syria could unleash the world’s first use of chemical weapons in nearly three decades is based on two grim scenarios – neither considered likely, but both carrying risks of civilian massacre and a major escalation of violence.
The first is that President Bashar Assad, in a last-ditch effort to save his regime, would order chemical attacks – either as a limited demonstration to the rebels of his willingness to use the internationally banned weapons, or in a large-scale offensive designed to turn the tide of a conflict that has already killed tens of thousands.
The second is that some portion of Assad’s arsenal could be moved to Iran or Lebanon, or fall into the hands of foreign fighters linked to terrorist groups helping rebels.
What kinds of chemicals are question? What weapons?
News this past week that an unknown number of weapons in Syria were recently loaded with the nerve agent sarin brought the West’s fears into sharp relief.
Syria has never confirmed that it even has chemical weapons. But it is believed to possess substantial stockpiles of mustard gas and a range of nerve agents, including sarin, a highly toxic substance that can suffocate its victims by paralysing muscles around their lungs.
James Quinlivan, a Rand Corp analyst who studies the elimination of weapons of mass destruc-
in tion, said Syria was thought to have hundreds of tons of chemical- weapons material, including not only sarin and mustard gas, but also possibly another deadly central nervous system agent, the sarin-like VX.
Iraq’s Saddam Hussein used sarin and mustard gas on Kurds in northern Iraq in a 1987-88 campaign that killed thousands. That was the last time state-controlled chemical weapons were used; a Japanese doomsday cult unleashed sarin in the Tokyo subway system in 1995, killing 13.
The precise dimensions of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal are not known, in part because it has never been subjected to outside inspection. Experts say it is a formidable collection, but the wea- pons date back almost 40 years, and have not been modernised.
US officials have warned Assad there would be unspecified ‘‘consequences’’ if he used his chemical weapons or lost control of them. That could include military intervention, aided perhaps by allies such as Turkey. The US and its allies might also launch a preemptive military operation to secure the weapons before use.
One administration official defined what would trigger a response: the use of chemical weapons, or movement with the intent to use them, or word that they were falling into the hands of a terrorist group like Hizbollah.
America and its allies have already begun preparing.