Bledisloe may still be beyond reborn Wallabies
night’s Super Rugby semifinals, and will have one in the final. That means they’ve at least got teams – and players – in form. That’s the first step.
The All Blacks have to accept the Wallaby challenge goes up a level. That seems inevitable. They’ve gone through a transition based around selection, and it looks as though Ewen McKenzie has worked out a policy that suits the resources they have.
But whether they can overcome the mental challenge of playing the All Blacks is another matter. They will be missing some guys who haven’t been able to get across the line, in the likes of Will Genia and Quade Cooper, and that might be a good thing.
They may win a test this year, but can they win two? History tells us it’s a struggle to come to Auckland and beat the All Blacks, so they’ve got to win the first game in Sydney on August 16.
Their preparation and selection will have to be bang-on to beat this All Blacks side. And while they’re entitled to have belief, they’re in no position to be over-confident.
But McKenzie is smarter than that. He’s been measured in his approach, and now it’s about getting his selection right, which is a challenge when you think about the form of some of their players.
They’ve got Matt Toomua, Christian Leali’ifano and Kurtley Beale all contenders at 12, Tevita Kudrani and Adam Ashley-Cooper at centre, and Nick Phipps, Nic White and Luke Burgess all playing well at 9.
Getting their selection right will be as important as getting their heads right. Whoever comes in for the first game has to be confident.
There’s been a lot of noise about wing Henry Speight, who will become available halfway through the Rugby Championship, being ‘‘one that got away’’ from New Zealand rugby. But I don’t buy that.
I had a little bit to do with him when he was a rookie looking to break into the Waikato side, and he certainly wasn’t the player he is now. It’s taken five years to develop his game to this level.
Yes, he’s playing well now. But is he any better than anything we’ve got in New Zealand? That’s a moot point.
As for the All Blacks, their squad named tomorrow will be pretty settled. Dan Carter will be back, Charles Piutau too and there may be a loose forward shuffle.
There’s talk Steven Luatua may come back in at the expense of Victor Vito. I wonder if that’s on form, or is it that they wanted to send a message, and have seen it taken on board?
What Luatua does bring is that
It’s been 11 years since the big trophy resided across the Tasman, and I’m not sure it’s ready for a new home just yet.
ability to play the second row, and that shouldn’t be under-estimated when you’re talking about the balance of a squad. That could be his biggest asset right now.
If Sam Cane was picked ahead of Matt Todd that would be a serious talking point. We saw how good Cane was last year but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him out there.
I believe his absence was a big part of why the Chiefs tailed off a bit this season.
There’s no doubting Cane’s class, but Todd is keeping the All Blacks captain on the blindside flank for the Crusaders. If he’s to miss out against someone who hasn’t played any rugby in an age, he’d be mighty unlucky.
There will be two big calls to made ultimately at 10 and 15.
Do they go with Dan Carter or Aaron Cruden, and where does that leave Beauden Barrett?
And Ben Smith is going to be out there – it’s just whether they want him at fullback. We all know how good Israel Dagg is but at the moment Smith is playing better. It ultimately comes down to a choice between Dagg, Cory Jane and Charles Piutau for one back-three spot.
Who’s best to beat those buoyant Wallabies?