Flag debate could give Kiwis taste of voting against Key

JOHN KEY’S quest for a symbolic legacy by changing the flag was always going to be vexed, but the $26 million process is threatening to turn into a political headache.

As well as putting the cart before the horse by insisting on showing the nation a series of alternatives before Kiwis decide if they even wanted a new flag, the campaign for change is currently rudderless, aside from Key, who is the wrong man to lead it.

Submissions on legislation enabling a two-step vote to change the flag kicked off in Parliament this week. It was a strange start – the first submitter blamed the quality of flagpoles for leaving flags limp, as if this was something the government has any real control over.

More damaging opposition is coming. The Returned and Services Association has presented the timing of the process as an insult, with submissions due so close to the centenary of the Gallipoli landing, when soldiers fought and died under the flag.

There are plenty of very high-profile Kiwis who back changing the flag, questioning its relevance to modern New Zealand, and its striking similarity to that of Australia.

But there is confusion about why Key would be prepared to associate himself with something so politically risky when that association could harm the campaign, and his popularity.

The last high-profile campaign to change the flag should have offered some lessons for this time.

A decade ago the late Sir Lloyd Morrison was worried that his support for change would taint the campaign, as it could become associated with the whim of a wealthy businessman.

This was the same Morrison who amassed a fortune largely investing in New Zealand infrastructure, and who campaigned against Air New Zealand being taken over by Qantas, or the New Zealand Stock Exchange being run from Sydney.

Key’s relationship with sovereignty issues, from trade deals to co-operation on spying, is more complicated, as it would be for any prime minister.

His fronting of the flag debate is not an effective way to build a nationalistic campaign. It could stop influential backers from coming out in public for fear of becoming associated with party politics.

So far, there is little sign of any grassroots movement backing changing the flag and opinion polls suggest what support there is for change is slipping.

This is before we even see the designs selected by a panel of New Zealanders. Such a group will be faced with committee-type decision making, reducing the scope for bold designs. The task has the added pressure of selecting designs which will inevitably come under considerable scrutiny, and could all ultimately be dismissed anyway.

But the biggest risk could turn out to be for Key. If the referendum for change is defeated, Key may have spent $26m of taxpayer money on giving New Zealanders a dose of what it feels like to vote against him.

This just a year before he could be seeking a rare fourth term in government.

The biggest risk could turn out to be for Key.