Climate change threat to coffee
CULTIVATION OF the arabica coffee plant, the staple of daily caffeine fixes and an economic lifeline for millions of small farmers, is under threat from climate change as rising temperatures and new rainfall patterns limit the areas where it can be grown, researchers have warned.
Arabica, which has long been prized for its delicate and aromatic flavour, accounts for 70 per cent of the global coffee market share. But it is particularly sensitive to temperature increases, which reduce its growth, flowering and fruiting and make it more susceptible to coffee pests.
With global temperatures forecast to increase by 2C-2.5C over the next few decades, a report predicts that some of the major coffee-producing countries will suffer serious losses, reducing supplies and driving up prices.
The joint study, published by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, models the global suitability of arabica cultivation to see how production will be affected in 2050.
It predicts that Brazil , Vietnam , Indonesia and Colombia – which between them produce 65 per cent of the global market share of arabica – will find themselves experiencing severe losses unless steps are taken to change the genetics of the crops as well as the manner and areas in which it is grown.
Dr Peter La¨derach, a climate change specialist and co-author of the report, said that although some countries would be able to mitigate the ‘‘massive impact’’ of climate change by simply moving their coffee to higher, cooler areas, it was not an option for everyone.
‘‘If you look at the countries that will lose out most, they’re countries like El Salvador , Nicaragua and Honduras , which have steep hills and volcanoes,’’ he said. ‘‘As you move up, there’s less and less area. But if you look at some South American or east African countries, you have plateaus and a lot of areas at higher altitudes, so they will lose much less.’’
Without new strategies, says the study, Brazil alone can expect its current arabica production to drop by 25 per cent by 2050.
However, Laderach said even those countries with higher altitudes were likely to find themselves struggling to make up for lost land because the needs of coffee cultivation would have to be weighed up against the preservation of forests, nature reserves and national parks.
Coffee, the second-most traded commodity after oil, is grown by an estimated 25 million farmers in more than 60 tropical countries, making it a key source of revenue for many developing nations. La¨derach said that failure to find new and better ways to grow arabica would have serious consequences for both humans and the environment.
‘‘If you look at Burundi or Uganda or Nicaragua, they depend heavily on coffee, so they’d miss that income for the development of their countries,’’ he said.