Clark’s slim hope still a hope

A night of the long knives is the only way Helen Clark will take the top job at the United Nations.

But as long as there are daggers being sharpened on the grindstone, she has a glimmer of hope.

I’ve spent the past week in New York, investigating New Zealand’s role on the Security Council as our Foreign Affairs Mission prepares for a crescendo month at the head of the table, coinciding with the ‘‘biggest show in town’’ – Leaders’ Week.

But before that, all eyes are on the Security Council’s next straw poll as part of the selection process for the next Secretary General.

Clark’s prospects are slim after two successive polls earned her an increasing number of anonymous ‘‘discourages’’. The next one is tomorrow, and it’s unlikely she will have improved.

Two candidates have dropped out, leaving a 10-person race, and it’s understood Clark may have been advised that it’s perhaps best she do the same.

The politics of selection is too strong and it’s been suggested that aside from the fact Clark does not hail from Eastern Europe – it’s said to be that region’s ‘‘turn’’ in the role – she’s a little more ‘‘general’’ and a little less ‘‘secretary’’ than vetoholding countries such as the US and Russia would like.

There is no embarrassment in being ousted for being perceived as ‘‘too competent’’. Clinging on for too long, however, may result in loss of face – particularly given Clark still has a top-level job heading the UN Development Programme.

Russia has publicly expressed no preference for any candidate, but is expected to veto any who are not Eastern European.

It’s expected tomorrow’s poll won’t see a veto from any of the Permanent Five (France, Russia, the UK, the US and China), but Clark received six ‘‘discourage’’ votes in the last round and it’s probable at least one of those came from the power group.

Despite being non-committal, all five members have warmly received lobbying on Clark’s behalf by both Prime Minister John Key and Murray McCully, so someone’s not being up-front.

The Government has backed her to the hilt, and will continue to do so because Clark is a quality candidate. She is the only one who can decide to pull out of the race.

But by the time Key joins world leaders in New York next month, leading the Security Council on New Zealand’s centrepiece issue – the war in Syria – it’ll be hoped that Clark will have either drastically improved, or made the hard decision to end her campaign.

It’s New Zealand’s second and final presidency before our time on the Security Council ends, and that we’ve chosen to tackle Syria has both raised eyebrows at our naivete and drawn a quiet respect.

The Government will not want anything to overshadow that.