Stats show ABs and 6N champs are closer than you think
Flawless northern tours are tricky assignments even for this great team.
Something we keep hearing about is the gap the All Blacks have created between themselves and the rest of the world.
In saying that, it’s a very New Zealand point of view, no matter the season. There is always a feeling that the All Blacks are a level above.
But each year, when the All Blacks head north, that gap doesn’t appear quite as big as it might have looked before the tour.
A look at for and against points scored, comparing the All Blacks to the Six Nations champions of that season, suggests we actually perform at a similar level to the best of our northern rivals.
In fact, in the 2012-2014 seasons (there was no northern tour in 2015 due to the World Cup), the All Blacks’ +/- was less than the Six Nations champions in matches against the same teams.
The All Blacks went 8-1 in nine such games, where the Six Nations champions went 7-2: a comparable record.
In 2012, Wales won the Six Nations and the Grand Slam, beating all comers. They defeated Scotland 27-13, England 19-12 and Italy 24-3, for a points differential of +49.
When the All Blacks toured, they hammered both Scotland and Italy, 51-22 and 42-10 respectively, but were beaten by England 38-21. They had a points differential of +44.
In 2013, Wales again won the Six Nations, but didn’t get the Grand Slam. They fell 30-22 to Ireland, a team the All Blacks later edged 24-22, thanks to that last minute Ryan Crotty try.
Wales also defeated France, 16-6, and England, 30-3. New Zealand defeated France 26-19 and England 30-22 on their tour. Wales ended with a points differential of +29, compared with the All Blacks’ +17.
The following year it was a similar story. Ireland won the Six Nations, but lost to England 13-10 in their third match. New Zealand were on the right side of a threepoint margin when they played England later in the year, 24-21.
Ireland also defeated Scotland, 28-6, and Wales, 26-3, while the All Blacks won those games 24-16 and 34-16 respectively. The points differential, Ireland were +42, while the All Blacks were +29.
This exercise paints a picture. When you factor in the weather conditions and different style of play in the north, the All Blacks come back to the field a little.
That should provide a warning to All Blacks fans: do not write off Six Nations sides. At least one will get closer than the Wallabies or Springboks have been able to.