Could the big shake make Key the next Holyoake?

He’d never admit it, but the 7.8m North Canterbury quakes may have just handed John Key a fourth term as prime minister. Locking it in of course, won’t be a cakewalk. But it’s less than a year out from the election, and voters’ need for stability while staring down down the barrel of years of geologic and economic uncertainty has been documented before.

We still know comparatively little of the full scale of investment required since Monday’s early morning earthquake claimed two lives and destroyed homes, businesses and infrastructure, but some things are plain to see.

The iconic tourist town of Kaikoura may never be the same again; homes, livelihoods, transport access – devastated for months to come.

For a town so dependent on visitors and its natural surrounds, it’s the kind of blow that could be a death knell for a community less resilient.

In Wellington, the number of buildings evacuated and cordoned indefinitely is rising every day.

And in the wake of severe seismic activity, there’s unlikely to have ever been a Government more surefooted than the current one.

Within 24 hours of the Monday morning earthquake, Key had cancelled a planned trade trip to Argentina and was being choppered into the worsthit areas of Kaikoura to see rescue and relief efforts first-hand.

Two days later he was back there as the world’s navies, led by our own, carried out evacuation missions, and a bevy of Government ministers followed him in the day after that.

An interim business package was unveiled within the week, to support the worst-hit employers as they face an unknown period where there will likely be little to no custom.

The Government is yet to put a foot wrong, but credit must also go to Labour leader Andrew Little and his party for making all the right moves – even if they’re not conducive to being in Opposition.

Little also cancelled a planned trip to India and Pakistan, and Labour MPs have displayed a united front to put politics aside in support of quake victims in the immediate aftermath.

As a new rebuild progresses, there will no doubt be plenty of opportunity to criticise the longer-term response. So far, however, Key and his Cabinet have reacted as if they’ve been through all this before.

Indeed, post-disaster responses may well end up being the hallmark of this Government. They’ve steered New Zealand to record growth after the Global Financial Crisis, the Canterbury earthquakes and Pike River.

Now, in the aftermath of the North Canterbury quake. it’s expected that fixing infrastructure, getting Kaikoura back on its feet and repairing some government buildings in the capital city will cost at least $2 billion.

It’s hardly a knockout blow to the Government’s books, already $1.8b in surplus – double what was forecast for this period. The cost of borrowing is also low and EQC has offered assurances it’s well-placed to cover its share.

Further out of course, rebuilding cities and roads can prove to be quite stimulatory.

But the ground on which next year’s election is likely to be fought has shifted with the plates.

Economic credibility will be more important than ever, and promises of increased spending on major new policies could be tough to sell. Or at least, easier to dismiss.

And while voters might be inclined to focus on a new set of short and medium-term issues, it could come at the expense of some long-term issues that really should have been dealt with a term or two ago.

The unsustainability of current superannuation settings, and this Government’s refusal to touch them, springs to mind.

In the face of immediate human suffering, these are conversations that can wait.