Latham’s rapid rise to fill troublesome top spot
Tom Latham has adapted well to opening innings for New Zealand in test arena.
He might not draw the same fanfare as his better established or bigger-hitting team-mates but Tom Latham has quickly and quietly established himself as an indispensable cog in the Black Caps test team.
Better yet, his performances have come in the perennially problematic opening position.
To get an idea of how much the Black Caps struggle at the top of the order in tests consider that, in the decade between Mark Richardson’s retirement and Latham’s debut, the Black Caps used 17 different opening batsmen in 22 different combinations.
But that merry-go-round now appears to have only one open seat. Less than three years into his test match career Latham is already one of New Zealand’s best ever openers. His five centuries put him behind John Wright (12) and Glenn Turner (seven). He’s ahead of fellow lefties, Richardson and Bert Sutcliffe, for centuries scored as an opener (Sutcliffe scored four of his five centuries as an opener).
Only eight players have scored more runs opening the batting for New Zealand in tests. By the time this summer is over he should be fourth on that list behind Wright, Turner and Richardson. Prior to the Pakistan series he needed 459 runs to overtake Graham Dowling in fourth place.
From there he will be just one good season short of overtaking Richardson (2770) and Turner (2828).
Since his test debut Latham has scored 1748 tests runs (prior the to first test against Pakistan), only Kane Williamson (2618) has scored more in the same period.
He has also been past 50 on 15 occasions in 47 innings – a meaningful contribution once every three innings. With Williamson he has put on six century and five half-century stands for the second wicket from 24 partnerships at an average of 55.5.
This combination is second only to Williamson and Ross Taylor among all New Zealand partnerships in the period since his test debut.
Home form is perhaps the only blot on his copybook. In New Zealand he averages 29.92 (compared to his overall average of 38 prior to the Pakistan series) and has only performed worse in South Africa (where he averaged 2.66 in two tests earlier in 2016).
All five of his centuries have come abroad. While his best performances have come in the UAE (against Pakistan), West Indies and Zimbabwe, he has also performed well in Australia, England and India.
It’s a promising start to what could be a fruitful career.
Barring a career-curtailing injury or loss of form (of course both of these are possibilities) 24-year-old Latham might expect to play test cricket for another eight to 12 years.
At the current rate of about eight tests per calendar year that could be anything between another 60 to 100 test matches.
Assuming he maintained something like his output from the first three years of his career (70 runs per test and a century once in every five tests) for another 60 tests he would finish with 17 centuries and about 6000 runs – making him New Zealand’s most productive test opener.
But barring injury or loss of form, this is perhaps a floor for Latham. A more likely outcome? That he plays another 80 tests and his output improves, particularly as he reaches his late-20s and early-30s.
In that scenario what is a ceiling for Latham?
An output of one century in every 4.5 tests and 80 runs a test for another 80 tests, would see him finish with 24 test centuries and almost 8000 runs and put him among New Zealand’s best ever batsmen, let alone openers.