Bittersweet night for Ardern fans
The Jacinda Effect just wasn’t effective enough but there’s still plenty for Labour to celebrate, writes Adam Dudding
It’s Sunday morning, and Labour voter Luciana Tieni reckons she might be wanting a glass of whisky for breakfast.
‘‘I don’t think we’ll be too happy,’’ she says ahead of the results. She is imagining the aftermath of an election night where Jacinda Ardern’s newly invigorated party isn’t the clear victor.
‘‘If National stays in, we’re not going to have a change.’’
Tieni, 37, voted for Labour specifically because of Ardern. The waitress and mother of three was a Labour stalwart up till Helen Clark’s 2008 loss to John Key, then switched to Greens, because ‘‘the last few people coming through Labour have been just s***’’. She will never vote National.
She’s come home to Labour this year because Ardern ‘‘just comes across stronger. The rest got lost in the background. You hear her voice, and you remember her.’’
New Zealand had just eight weeks to hear Ardern’s voice after her emergency succession as leader, but that was long enough for many to decide they liked what they heard.
Her poll numbers swiftly eclipsed those of her five predecessors, then bounced back and forth between likely defeat and likely victory so often it gave her supporters whiplash. But going by last night’s results, it seems the Jacinda Effect just wasn’t quite effective enough.
This morning the party’s tight five – Ardern, her finance guy Grant Robertson, her deputy leader Kelvin Davis plus Chris Hipkins and Phil Twyford – will still be scattered around the country, mostly in their own homes after spending last night at local Labour events.
As they dial in for a teleconference catch-up there’ll be disappointment, sure.
It was all too easy for everyone to get their hopes up in the face of Ardern’s magnetism, her surefootedness under pressure, her ‘‘captain’s call’’ decisiveness (even if some of those calls didn’t end well), the size of the crowds she drew, the clamour for selfies, the online buzz.
And yes, trailing Bill English’s national in votes and seats, the looming prospect of another three years of National-led government is a bitter pill.
But there’s still plenty to celebrate.
Eight weeks ago, with Andrew Little at the helm, a Labour win was unimaginable, yet after a whirlwind campaign built mostly on personal popularity, Ardern made it seem entirely possible. That’s an achievement in itself.
The leap in Labour’s support means more Labour MPs in parliament, and every additional Labour MP, however inexperienced, represents not just new energy and a bigger crowd jeering at government ministers during question time, but also more office space in parliament, more money to spend, and more researchers to probe the weaknesses of a tiring fourth-term government.
By tomorrow all of Labour’s MPs – old and new – will be arriving in Wellington. Ardern’s inner circle will catch up again in person, and the first full caucus meeting is 10.30am on Tuesday. The old guard will be putting a brave face on the election outcome and talking up the positives, but the newbies won’t have to pretend.
Even though they are likely signing up to an opposition rather than a government, they’ll still be fizzing with excitement (and for those who were lurking near the Labour list cut-off, mild disbelief).
They’ll be shown how to find the toilets and the fire exits. The party whips will buy sausage rolls for morning tea and there’ll be a bit of analysis of the results and some sharing of election war stories.
We've dealt with three terms of National so far, so what's another? We struggle. We have good times and bad. That's life. Labour voter Luciana Tieni
In light of her partial success, Ardern is now safe as houses as Labour leader.
She’ll be looking to build up her profile and leadership in preparation for the 2020 election, by which time she’ll still be only 40. By then, history will be firmly on Labour’s side: the last time New Zealand voted in a government for a fifth term was in 1905, under Liberal leader Richard Seddon.
In Mt Albert, Tieni says Ardern would definitely get her vote again in 2020.
Under National, she says, things got tougher for herself, and those around her. She’s seen the people sleeping in the cars in nearby Fowlds Park.
‘‘That’s sad. That didn’t happen when Helen Clark was in power.’’
Labour’s election promises had stood to benefit Tieni personally as well.
As someone with multiple jobs she was looking forward to Labour’s promise to abolish secondary tax. Her 14-year-old will be looking at tertiary education soon, and ‘‘if she can get three years without paying or without me paying I’ll be very happy’’.
Still, she says, ‘‘we’ve dealt with three terms of National so far, so what’s another?
‘‘We struggle. We have good times and bad. That’s life.’’