Susan Edmunds.
Return to status quo for property market likely, writes
Dana Chandler-Brown says the surge of support for National feels like a slap in the face to those who are struggling in New Zealand’s housing market.
She and her industrial electrician husband have two children and rent a house in Te Atatu, West Auckland. But the $500 they pay each week is almost half his takehome pay.
The only way they can see to save money is to move in with her father. ‘‘Even if it’s only a small amount and even if it only means that when unexpected bills like car repairs come up they can be covered.’’
National’s tax cuts won’t be enough to make a difference to the family’s budget - she had her hopes pinned on Labour’s proposed changes to Working for Families.
A better quality rental for her family is now out of reach and buying their own place is years away.
Housing has been a key issue for the campaign this year, but economists say the result probably means more of the same. The one area of uncertainty is NZ First.
Winston Peters has made it clear through his campaign that reducing immigration is about as close to a bottom-line policy as he has.
Political commentator Ben Thomas says New Zealand can look to 1996 for an example of how he might wield his power. Then, the only one of his policies he really pushed was an immigration crack-down, and it fell off a cliff. ‘‘He can and will slash immigration,’’ Thomas says.
Prices have already softened in Auckland’s property market and turnover is down by about a third in some parts of the country compared to a year ago.
Population pressure has been one of the key elements supporting house prices, and one of the reasons commentators have expected the current market softness to be short-lived. If immigration were to fall away, there could be less impetus for prices to recover.
But economist Shamubeel Eaqub says it’s likely the status quo for the property market will continue. ‘‘They don’t have any new policies that will change anything.’’
BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says National’s plan to introduce urban planning legislation and accelerate infrastructure development could allow more housing construction. Alongside a change in migration, that’s the other way the supplyand-demand imbalance could be rectified. ‘‘However, without efforts to improve capacity in terms of builder availability, the shortage of houses in Auckland is likely to grow.’’
Although she didn’t vote for them, Whangarei legal executive and mother-of-two Helen BrasierStewart can see positives in a National win.
The promised increase to the KiwiSaver HomeStart subsidy may help with her plans to build a house one day. Between them, she and her partner should qualify for an extra $30,000 on top of their KiwiSaver savings.
That would get them back to the same position they were in, in Perth, before they left three years ago. ‘‘The house prices here at that point surprised me and of course it’s gone up even more since then. We probably should have bought when we came back but we didn’t.’’
In Auckland, Antony Paine, is planning a stint in Dubai with his partner, Yvonne Kerr, to save to buy a house.
He says, while they struggled to get ahead on his teacher’s salary, things might not be so bad for the next generation. Between Welcome Home Loans and KiwiSaver, it should be possible for young people to buy.
‘‘My daughter is 17 now and if I were her, I’d get together with some mates just to get on the ladder. I didn’t do that when I probably should have and I’m ruing it now.’’