Electric revolution hits the accelerator
The number of diesel and petrol vehicles on New Zealand roads is tipped to halve by 2040 as electric vehicles take over, writes Damian George.
When Sigurd Magnusson bought an electric vehicle just over two years ago, he had to source it from a specialist importer.
‘‘It was a bit of a rigmarole trying to find someone to buy it from,’’ the Lower Hutt motorist says.
‘‘There was nowhere to buy one in Wellington at the time. I got mine off a specialist used importer in Alexandra. He brought it up to Wellington for a test drive, and I bought it through internet banking.’’
Fast forward to 2017, and electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles can be found at car yards across the country.
We’ve been hearing for a while now that a revolution on the roads is coming, a shift away from the petrol-guzzling motors that have been with us for generations.
And industry experts believe the tipping point isn’t far away.
Electric vehicles are expected to comprise 40 per cent of the total vehicle fleet by 2039-40, compared to less than 0.1 per cent in 2015-16, according to the Ministry of Transport.
Magnusson, who drives a 2011 Nissan Leaf, worked in computer software before leaving the industry to join the electric vehicle movement about the same time he bought his car.
He is now a trustee at The Better NZ Trust, which aims to assist the country’s adoption of zero-carbon technology.
‘‘Technology change is something I’d been very well aware of, and I saw this coming,’’ he says.
Although this country’s electric vehicle fleet is still relatively small, ownership increase is gathering pace.
There were just 192 electric vehicles registered in New Zealand in January 2013, and more than 1000 by the end of the year. But in the past two years the number has risen to more than 5800, including 467 joining the fleet in November alone.
One factor is undoubtedly the decreasing cost. The type of car Magnusson bought for more than $20,000 in 2015 is now going for about $12,000 to $15,000.
If growth continues at its current rate, the target of 16,000 electric vehicles on the country’s roads by the end of 2019 will be met sometime this year, says Ministry of Transport mobility and safety manager Brent Johnston.
Initiatives have been put in place to accelerate that uptake, including exempting electric-vehicle owners from road-user charges until those vehicles reach 2 per cent of the total fleet.
For an electric-car owner who travels 10,000 kilometres a year, that amounts to a saving of about $600.
By 2040, it is expected the petrol and diesel vehicle fleet will have dropped to nearly half of what it was in 2015-16, down from 3.8 million to 2.4 million.
At the same time, electric vehicles will jump to 1.9 million, or about 40 per cent of all vehicles. Diesel and electric vehicles currently make up 99 per cent of the total fleet.
The rise will be driven by the declining cost of owning an electric vehicle, which is expected to be the same as owning a conventional vehicle by the mid-2020s.
Ownership rates are then expected to soar, but the transition will take time because of the slow turnover rate of electric vehicles, and New Zealand’s imports.
Despite the hefty price tags for some better-known brands of electric vehicle – anyone wanting an ‘affordable’ Tesla Model 3 is looking at a 12-18 month wait, and a US$35,000 (NZ$49,000) price tag – Magnusson says most electric vehicle owners are ‘‘laughing their way to the bank’’.
Magnusson has clocked up 50,000 kilometres in the car, with the only maintenance needed being new tyres and windscreen wipers, at a cost of about $700.
He tops up his car overnight, with $100 in electricity getting him about 5000km of travel, which lasts him a few months, including several weekly trips between Wellington and Lower Hutt.
It takes about 25 minutes to fill a car from empty at a fast-charge station – $10 gets you about 100km of travel, depending on the vehicle.
Vehicle range on a full battery can vary from 150km to 520km depending on the make of the car.
In old money, it works out as equivalent to around 30 cents a litre of petrol.
‘‘For many Kiwis, it’s from a purely economic view.’’ reliance on used worth if point of