Curtain rises on National leader drama
Contest has the staging and plot arcs to be quite the thriller.
Three players and three sets on one stage, with many acts yet to play out. We’re part-way through the two-week drama and more actors could enter, but there is a distinct chance the next leader to replace Bill English at the head of the National Party has already declared their aspiration.
His resignation wasn’t so much a shock, as it was six months earlier than everyone expected.
The party rallied quickly to let the curtain fall on a 27-year political career with only a single spotlight shining.
A brief intermission, then the curtain pulls back up and spotlights one, two, three. Showtime.
Like any good drama, the way Judith Collins, Simon Bridges and Amy Adams all announced their bids to contest the leadership built to a bit of a crescendo.
It might be an overreach to assume much thought went into the staging of the first two announcements.
In the case of Collins, who sent out a tweet, it might have seemed underplayed. But she has by far the largest public profile of the troika – it talked to the people her campaign is targeting, it was efficient, it worked for her.
And similarly for Bridges, who held a pretty typically business-like press conference. It gave media the chance to grill him on his platform all at once, which – as the widely agreed frontrunner – was pitched very much towards his caucus colleagues.
But Adams’ was most definitely a power-play. Out of the blocks, she took a long walk to the cameras flanked by four of her colleagues. Nikki Kaye, Chris Bishop, Maggie Barry and Tim McIndoe together made up Amy’s Army.
She might not have put on such a display had there not been so much speculation first that Bridges was the frontrunner.
Perhaps it spooked Collins, who undoubtedly has fewer numbers than her rivals, because the following day she was crying foul that rules had been broken, that the caucus had decided not to publicly endorse a candidate in the interests of unity. There was no such rule it turned out.
Rule or not, it could prove to be an isolating one for at least two of the MPs who backed Adams up. Kaye and Bishop are known to be from the left of the party, but it’s understood their decision to hitch their carts so soon and so publicly
Like any good drama, the way Judith Collins, Simon Bridges and Amy Adams all announced their bids to contest the leadership built to a bit of a crescendo.
to Adams has raised eyebrows in the wider caucus.
Both were MPs who came close to crossing the floor to vote for a Green Party bill for medicinal cannabis. They fell into line, but their dalliance with the far left was noted and party sources have expressed wonder that they would consider putting themselves so far out on a limb again, if Adams doesn’t win.
The numbers are swinging towards Bridges, with sources telling the Sunday Star-Times he conservatively has between 20 and 24 backers. Adams is not far behind, however, and is understood to be sitting on about 15.
Collins will have some who would like to see her get across, but not many that wouldn’t fall into line behind someone else if a clear leader emerged.
If Steven Joyce and Mark Mitchell decide to join the race it could split some votes, but under a progressive voting system it’s tough to know what the final vote might be. That’s if they get to that point.
While the candidates have stated publicly they’d be happy to see the competition reach a vote, as numbers start to firm up there’s nothing to stop deals being struck, senior roles promised and a fair amount of turncoating to play out in the closing scenes.