England will still be a force in November

Don’t write off Eddie Jones just yet, England are no Irish joke

The All Blacks coaches won’t believe what Eddie Jones calls the long shadows of opinion in every room. Steve Hansen knows that England will be just as much of a threat as Ireland in the November internationals. Hansen knows just how colossal a task it will be for the All Blacks to beat both teams back-to-back and on the road.

By now you may know the result of the final match of the Six Nations between England and Ireland at Twickenham. History says England will have won. History says the match will have been close. Since April, 2013 when Joe Schmidt became coach of Ireland, England have won at Twickenham and Ireland in Dublin. The average margin has been seven points. Only England, in 2016, have managed to score 20 points.

But if England have lost, then coach Jones will be dubbed a short-term motivator who has lost his mojo. And if England should win, then Jones will be praised for all the changes he has made to the team and be seen as some sort of visionary. Of course, both views are nonsense and entirely results based.

The truth is that there is not much distance between Ireland and England. Ireland very narrowly won in Paris by going through over 40 phases of possession to drop a goal in injury time. England narrowly lost because they were stiffed by referee Jaco Peyper who has a predilection for favouring the home team.

But because Ireland had won a record 11 games in a row (before Twickenham’s game) and England had lost consecutive matches, a chasm is perceived between the teams. This does not take into account fixture lists. It does not take into account the foibles of referees.

The last has been the biggest problem for Jones. His captains are not cutting it with the refs and in the games against Wales, Scotland and France, England have been hammered by a two-to-one penalty margin. It would be hard for even the All Blacks to win from a position of such disparity.

Jones could have pointed out that the French No 7 should have been at least yellow carded before half time for a deliberate trip on Elliott Daly. He could have pointed out that England were penalised for the mildest of high tackles, whereas several French high tackles went unpunished. He could have pointed out that French players were not rolling away in the tackle. He could have pointed out a French knock-on when defending a lineout on their own line. The refereeing was very bad and it lacked equity.

Instead Jones decided to ask Marius van der Westhuizen, the assistant referee for the Ireland game, to officiate their Tuesday training session. It was a good idea, but I think Jones needs to make his voice heard sooner or later. New Zealand authorities pressure referees. Steve Hansen did it throughout the Lions series. It is part of their strategy. Jones’s strategy of staying onside with officials is not working.

However the main reason for England’s slight drop in form is the loss of both Billy Vunipola and Ben Youngs. Along with Owen Farrell, they form the three key parts of England’s team. If you took Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray out of Ireland, they too would dip, and who knows who will be fit in the autumn. One more big head knock and Sexton’s career could be finished.

The major criticism I have of Jones is that his selection of Danny Care to replace Youngs at No 9, was a poor one. Care is not a strategist. He does not organise the men outside him and he does not reset the team in order to react to referees. It was notable how much England improved when Richard Wigglesworth came on against Scotland and France.

But Jones is not a stubborn man. He has brought Wigglesworth in for the Ireland game. He has dropped Joe Launchbury who is a poor ball-carrier and gets isolated, leading to a rash of penalties. Chris Robshaw has moved back to No 6 where he is more suited. And Jones has decided, for now, not to have playmakers at both 10 and 12.

These are big changes and it may be difficult for England to adapt to them all straight away. Ireland will sense they have a huge chance for the grand slam. But the changes will shake up England in the long term and that is a good thing.

If everyone is fit, and that is a colossal if, England have a good chance of beating the All Blacks in November. But in some ways they should not even be on the same page, because where England really struggles to match the All Blacks is in the extraordinary amount of depth that exists on these isles.

With the players that they have New Zealand should now be well ahead of the rest, just as their teams are in Super Rugby. I would contend that they have five of the world’s best eight No 10s. They have six players in the back three who would get into any other side in the world.

The All Blacks should be dazzling right now, but their attack and strategic kicking continue to suggest that parts of the coaching structure are not all that they should be.

Indeed given the extraordinary depth of coaching that New Zealand also possesses, the performance of the All Blacks since the 2015 World Cup should be viewed as unacceptable. The fact that we are even talking up Ireland and England’s chances against them is ridiculous.

Jones said of England; ‘‘Sometimes success covers over cracks in the team. We have been aware of those cracks, but sometimes you need someone to come in and whack a sledgehammer on it to open it up and get real change.’’

The same may be true of New Zealand. You can forget the June tour by France. The Gauls will be knackered. But it might be a good thing if the All Blacks get turned over by someone in November. It might not be a sledgehammer. But it might open a big enough crack to persuade Hansen to bring in a top coach to help with the attack ahead of the World Cup.