NZ must pick a side in Pacific

It’s not so much a bridge between, but a rope violently tugged from both ends. New Zealand’s role in the race for influence over the Pacific remains as complicated as ever. Treading a careful line between trade and security is a dance New Zealand has performed well. But as China and the United States continue their tit-for-tat trade wars, and China progresses its expansionist military strategy in the Pacific, the choreography is getting harder.

As our external spy agency the Government Communications Security Bureau was putting the kibosh on plans for Spark to allow Chinese telco Huawei to build a 5G mobile network in New Zealand, I spent the past week speaking with defence officials at US Indo-Pacific Command, the US Pearl Harbor headquarters for all military operations in the Pacific. Outwardly, the US knows the risk of expecting nations to choose its side. It understands the economic role China plays within the region – from dodgy infrastructure development loans to legitimate and open trading. The US is also acutely aware of perceptions of its own, at times forceful, approach to upholding ‘‘democratic values’’.

Nor did defence officials shy away from accepting their own president’s ongoing actions which arguably undermine the economic rules-based system governed by the World Trade Organisation.

Still, those same officials could barely hide their relief at New Zealand’s Huawei decision, which has also renewed pressure on the UK to block the tech company’s 5G rollout there and highlighted Canada’s review of Huawei’s involvement with its sensitive infrastructure.

It’s also earned ourselves another thinly veiled warning from the Chinese Government that New Zealand is not immune to economic sanctions if it makes decisions China does not agree with. But as one US Defence official put it: there is ‘‘no way’’ a network built by a company that has that many ties to the Chinese Government, is not a security threat.

Trade with China should, and likely always will, remain a priority for New Zealand. But with the hard-fought CPTPP trade agreement coming into force this month, and multi-lateral free trade negotiations with the European Union and a host of other countries in the pipeline, New Zealand is at least looking like it has options.

Which is a good thing, as it becomes increasingly more difficult to shake the impression that China is actively snubbing us. Trade minister, David Parker, is yet to meet with his equivalent minister, despite a number of trips there, and the Prime Minister has also put to bed any hope of a visit to Beijing this year.

New Zealand will continue with the dance – the trading relationship is too important to break. But as China looks to further its military hold in the Pacific and New Zealand becomes more outspoken about Chinese motives in the Pacific, our refusal to play a side is unlikely to get any easier.

China may end up taking that decision out of our hands.

Treading a careful line between trade and security is a dance New Zealand has performed well . . . but the choreography is getting harder.

* Stacey Kirk travelled to Indopacom in Honolulu, Hawaii, for study regarding security in the Pacific, courtesy of the US State Department.