Mark Reason: Six big threats to our Rugby World Cup hopes
The All Blacks face a major challenge to retain the World Cup next year. But just what, or who, can derail their bid?
The countries of the southern hemisphere have dominated rugby almost since its inception. Every now and again a nation from the northern hemisphere would rise up, but were soon put in their place again, somewhere near the sole of the All Blacks’ shoe.
The mighty Six Nations may be the world’s best rugby competition, but they have one piffling World Cup between them. New Zealand, South Africa and Australia have a collective seven. But for the first time in the history of the World Cup, the north seems to be a genuine, collective menace. How strange given that, in 2015, New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and Argentina provided all four of the semifinalists.
Two years ago we were all wondering who would finish second in Japan. New Zealand’s superiority was overwhelming. But it has dwindled. The Lions tour took a chunk out of them. Erratic selection and muddled coaching have further diminished a team that should still be quite dominant given their player resources.
Sam Warburton, the retired captain of Wales and the Lions, said recently, ‘‘Six months ago, I would probably have put my house on New Zealand being World Cup winners. I wouldn’t put that bet on now. It’s going to be some World Cup next year in Japan — you can never write New Zealand off, but it looks like teams can now figure out a way against them.’’
New Zealanders can have a wry smile at that one, because it looks like the southern hemisphere have figured out a way against them. World Rugby vice-chairman Agustin Pichot recently protested the number of mercenary players who had switched their country of allegiance. Argentina and South Africa had none, but the rest were peppered with them.
Perhaps Pichot should have brought coaches into that mix. Would Ireland be where they are now without Joe Schmidt? Wales have Warren Gatland in charge, plus Kiwi players at 10 and 12. England are coached by Eddie Jones and their defence is now directed by John Mitchell. In many ways the biggest threat to New Zealand is New Zealand, and that is down to the failure to keep talent in this country.
My money is still on an All Blacks win in Japan. And it would not surprise me to see them play South Africa, a repeat of 2007 when two teams from the same pool met in the final. But here are the main threats to New Zealand fulfilling that prophecy.
1
Referees
The All Blacks do pretty well by officials, as the best teams in sport generally do, and moan mightily about them when they lose. But there is some wild stuff going on at the moment from the men in charge and you just know something bad will go down in the World Cup.
In recent weeks, England first-five Owen Farrell has gotten away with shoulder charges that should have seen him in the bin. Those incidents have been most discussed, but the real canker has been the TMO.
The system is a mess and needs stripping right back, which won’t happen. Driven by the commercial imperatives of television, and not the collective good of the game, World Rugby is committed to the TMO. But it is hideously selective and frequently wrong.
The All Blacks scored a sequence of tries in the first half against Italy which featured forward passes, knock-ons, offsides and obstructions in the build-up. Dane Coles was involved in three of them. None of them were picked up or were too far back to be referred.
Most of the time the ‘smaller’ countries suffer at the hands of the judiciary. But the wheel is due to turn New Zealand’s way once more. They had very sympathetic refs in both the 2011 and 2015 finals. That is due to change. In 2019 all three of their knockout games could be close. That brings in the refs and the TMO, and nobody wants their fate in those hands.
2 South Africa
Yes, it’s not Ireland, despite the world rankings. South Africa are just fifth in those rankings, but they are building. Historically, they are a threat to New Zealand. Historically, they are a threat at the World Cup, having won two and lost two mighty close semifinals in six attempts.
They play New Zealand in a pool that both will comfortably qualify from as Italy, Canada and Namibia make up the fodder. South Africa’s spine is strong, with Malcolm Marx, Duane Vermeulen, Faf de Klerk, Handre Pollard and Willie Le Roux. The midfield is strong. The pack is solid. There are game breakers on the wing. In fact, if it were not for the shackles of the quota
World Rugby is committed to the TMO. But it is hideously selective and frequently wrong.
system, South Africa might even start close to favourites.
3 England
The only northern hemisphere side to have won the tournament, they have also played in two losing finals. And coach Eddie Jones knows how to get it done at the World Cup. He is good at this knockout stuff.
More and more England are looking like a team that can play the power game. The forwards are strong and have depth, although there are still a couple of slight questions about the back row. England’s pool is awkward, in that there is a strong ‘third team’, whether you pick Argentina or France as that team.
But with the Vunipolas, Anthony Watson and Jonathan Joseph due back after Christmas, and the powerful introduction of Joe Cokanasiga and Manu Tuilagi in the secondhalf destruction of Australia, England are looking like a power team.
4 Ireland
Sorry Ireland, you should be higher, but the fact is that you have never made it even to a World Cup semifinal. And you are going to play New Zealand or South Africa in the quarterfinals. Johnny Sexton is going to be 34. He can only be even money to get to the tournament and last it through, and I wouldn’t take the bet at those odds. Conor Murray has also had neck issues. Captain Rory Best will be 37.
Ireland are brilliantly coached. They have the best tighthead prop in the world, and goodness knows how he wasn’t nominated for player of the year. Oh yes, props never are. Jacob Stockdale and James Ryan are standout young players. Ireland have so much going for them and would be hugely popular winners. But I fear that age and previous failure will tell. The World Cup will come two years too late.
5 Australia
Yes, they are a mess. Yes, they have lost nine out of 13 tests this year and slumped to sixth in the world, lucky to be ahead of Scotland. Yes, Nathan Grey, the defence coach has to go. Yes, discipline is a farce, the comic mishandling of the Kurtley Beale/Adam Ashley Cooper imbroglio being like something out of an English private school.
But you cannot ignore Australia’s record at World Cups. They are in a pool with three of the top-eight ranked teams in the world – Wales and Fiji will cause them bother. But so long as they can decide who plays at 10 and 12 and get on with it, then Australia cannot be discarded. They have contested four World Cup finals.
6 Wales
Perhaps unlucky to be ranked so low, having won their last nine matches. They are now super efficient with Gareth Anscombe at 10. Remember him? He played there when New Zealand won the 2011 Junior World Cup with Beauden Barrett at 15.
Wales have a strong pack, a very good No 9, accurate goal-kicking and a magnificent defence. They will be very hard to beat. But do they have the strike power to score enough points? A 9-6 victory over Australia wasn’t exactly overwhelming.