Stacey Kirk
The magic number is whispered to be around 38, and the time for decisions is shaping up to be around late January or early February. Parliament’s pundits are oscillating over a gleeful sweepstake: when will National Party leader Simon Bridges finally succumb to his low polling in the preferred prime minister stakes?
Except the rule that has existed since the dawn of the MMP era still stands. It’s the party vote that counts, and the latest public poll has National on 46 per cent. That there is more than just breathing space is a stay on the madness. Bridges will be relieved, because MPs tend to talk over the summer. Or worse, host barbecues.
While barbecues are welcome in almost every Kiwi household, in politician’s backyards they’ve been known to be fraught – as participants casually run numbers over a snag and a beer.
As long as the party is on 46, much of the heat will have gone out of those conversations. No pragmatic Nationalite in their right mind would topple a leader while the party is in the high 40s. Not all the polls are up there. The lowest internal party poll is widely acknowledged to be at 41 – the latest in a mercurial hopscotch between there and about 43 since the height of the Jami-Lee Ross fiasco.
Still, any murmurings of a leadership change due to Bridges’ own 7 per cent preferred PM score are perhaps missing the point.
Judith Collins is hot on his tail, but any outward destabilisation from her would work against her quick-smart. She’d only be an Opposition leader to stem the bleed of the party’s core – but that’s simply not happening, maybe because the centre right has no other viable place.
The internal polling is not so much the party’s problem, as it is how we all came to hear about it. Someone has been sending naughty texts to journalists, claiming to be an MP. They’ve so far failed to dish out any information political journalists aren’t given regularly, on background.
To that end, their actions aren’t so destabilising for Bridges, as they are for brand National, which, in spite of the Ross saga, the leaks, Maggie Barry, is so far holding. But internal stupidity would spell its downfall, as much as any concern over whether Bridges was a viable leader or not.
Continued leaking spells disunity. The leaker seems to be running through a burner phone a week, which would suggest they’re afraid to speak openly to any of their caucus colleagues about their disgruntlement.
They should be. As far as Oppositions go, National has been highly effective on paper – this threatens all of their work. The party has made cut-though on issues of petrol tax, living costs, and Karel Sroubek.
Where capital gains tax is almost a certainty, the Government is looking to post another massive surplus come Budget time. The case for any increased cost of living gets harder, and then the Government has a real problem on its hands.
Effectively two novelty cheques will need to be written for both health and mental health separately. It will not make life easy for the Government if that isn’t partway matched for teachers and other sectors. This is economic bread and butter for National, and yet they can’t quite get it together.
All in time for barbecue season.
Internal stupidity would spell National’s downfall, as much as any concern over whether Bridges was a viable leader or not.