NZ rugby’s alarming age problem

If the trend among some Super Rugby sides continues it will be a development competition within a decade. Paul Cully reports.

If Scott Robertson or Warren Gatland want to win Super Rugby this year they’ll have to succeed with fresh-faced sides. The Chiefs have the youngest squad in New Zealand this year, with an average age of just 24.05 years, while the Crusaders aren’t far behind (24.15 years).

Super Rugby has always been a young man’s game but not that young: the title-winning Chiefs of 2012 were 1.5 years older, per player, than their 2020 counterparts.

It’s clearly a significant concern. Younger players bring inconsistent performances and that impacts the whole system – including the All Blacks.

And the worst case scenario is that if the consistent trend exhibited by the Chiefs (and the Highlanders) then some Kiwi teams will resemble quasidevelopment squads within two World Cup cycles, with the average player between 22-24 years old.

One or two years might not sound like that much but ask a Super Rugby coach about how much growth they can achieve in that time period. Plenty.

But do these figures tell the story of Super Rugby as whole? Not definitively.

Our analysis shows the Hurricanes in 2020 are actually a touch older than they were in 2012. Similarly, the Blues’ average age has increased marginally since their 2016 intake and it is not much different from 2012.

It may well be that New Zealand rugby is still edging towards a cliff as money from the north takes its toll, but are we over the edge yet? Probably not quite yet.

Stuff looked at the squad ages in 2012, 2016 and 2020 to compare apples with apples.

The competition clearly feels younger than last year, but that’s because Rugby World Cup years typically bring an exodus of senior, high-profile players.

To get a truer picture we looked back at the corresponding points of the Rugby World Cup cycle in 2012 and 2016, when rebuilds occur.

The Chiefs and Highlanders still present red flags because their age profiles are trending downwards, while the Crusaders are a mixed bag but suffered a sharp drop in age in 2020.

For the Hurricanes and Blues it’s largely a case of business as usual, although evergreen prop Ben May has nudged up the Hurricanes’ average this year at the grand old age of 37.

Some other interesting points also emerge.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Highlanders are the ‘oldest’ Kiwi squad in this year’s competition, at a respectable 25 years old. However, this is still almost a year younger than their 2012 counterparts.

The Hurricanes are the side that has consistently embraced youth. Even eight years ago, before the really big money in Europe and Japan kicked in and scooped up players such as Matt Proctor, 27, the Hurricanes were already turning to kids.

In 2012, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Reggie Goodes (now retired) and Brad Shields formed a quartet who were contracted at the age of 20 or under.

The Crusaders’ long-term picture is up and down. In 2012, they actually had a relatively young squad, at 24.7 years old on average, which even increased in age in 2016 (25.4 years).

But in 2020, Robertson has 16 players who are 23 or under. His noted man management skills will be tested to the limit.

Sam Whitelock’s return next year will boost their average age but New Zealand rugby cannot afford a minute’s rest as wealthy clubs with private equity (UK), corporate cash (Japan) or wealthy benefactors (UK, France) target their players.

Last year’s significant deal with Sky could not have come at a better time but the reality is that the battle to keep talent is relentless, especially those on the fringes of the All Blacks such Proctor.

So, New Zealand rugby’s future appears to be younger players, and all the challenges that come with them. The next decade will be a critical one. years 25.8 years 24.75 years 25.2 years years years years

Average age: 24.7 years Average age: 25.5 years Average age: 24.7

BLUES: CHIEFS: CRUSADERS:

HIGHLANDERS:

HURRICANES:

BLUES: CHIEFS: CRUSADERS:

HIGHLANDERS:

HURRICANES:

BLUES: CHIEFS: CRUSADERS:

2012

2016

Average age: 24 years Average age: 24.68 years Average age: 25.4

Average age: 24.55 years Average age: 24.05 years Average age: 24.15 24.87 years

Average age:

Average age:

Average age:

Average age: 24.4

2020

HIGHLANDERS:

Average age: 25

HURRICANES:

Average age: