Is it the beginning of the end of the Winston Peters political era?

For the first time in more than two decades, I will be watching this year’s election from a distance. It will feel odd after covering the previous seven elections from the thick of the press gallery scrum. As any political reporter will tell you, elections are what we live for – they are chaotic, challenging, logistical nightmares and they will push you to the limits of your ability, especially in this day and age of 24/7 news and instant analysis. And that’s why we love them.

Each election was different to the last: Labour’s dramatic turnaround under Jacinda-mania was the story of the 2017 election; it seemed extraordinary that only three years before it was John Key who packed shopping centres and town halls wherever he went.

I recall one surreal day on the campaign trail in 2014 being called back to Parliament en route to a walkabout. After a hurried press conference to announce Judith Collins had resigned over the fallout from Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics, we travelled in convoy to the shopping mall, where Key couldn’t move for the number of people wanting selfies. Nicky who?

In 2011 it was all about the teapot tapes; 2008 marked the end of Helen Clark’s reign and the end of an era; 2005 was the election Don Brash nearly stole off the back of a seismic moment on race relations; and 2002 was all about Corngate and the near annihilation of National. Bill English spent election night 2002 crying on the shoulders of friends and supporters after taking the party to its worst-ever defeat.

The only constant has been NZ First leader Winston Peters; he has been central to every election campaign I’ve covered, going right back to my first in 1999.

Old hands still recall Winston Watch during the marathon 1996 coalition negotiations. I just missed that but was there in 1998 for the coalition bust-up with National.

We spent hours in the windowless corridor outside the NZ First caucus waiting for word from Peters. During one particularly epic stakeout a reporter fainted.

The world has changed dramatically since then; we’ve got iPhones, Facebook and the reality of climate change.

But some things never change; the political year has kicked off, as usual, with speculation about Peters’ role in deciding the next Government.

I suspect most of our readers, like me, find the constant word games over this subject tiresome. But it matters. How many of his supporters voted strategically for Peters in 2017 believing he would give National a leg up into Government? Even accepting the boomerang qualities of hardcore Peters’ supporters, surely they won’t be back this time around.

So is it time to write Peters off? He has cleverly played up his part as Labour’s handbrake, just as he once pitched himself as a bulwark against National’s extremes. It’s how he has survived so long in politics – even after the ‘‘baubles of office’’’ fiasco, or Owen Glenn donations scandal.

But you can only play one side against the other for so long and it feels like Peters has played one too many hands.

So is the extraordinary Peters era coming to an end? He is our most familiar face on television; as recognisable as the theme tune to Coronation Street, as well worn as a pair of old slippers.

But even soap operas eventually have their day.

The only constant has been NZ First leader Winston Peters; he has been central to every election campaign I’ve covered.