Stores run out of face masks

There is the risk of imported and sustained disease in this country. And also the economic impact, which is already being felt in financial markets and may affect tourist flows to New Zealand.

Of these concerns, the threat of importing disease to New Zealand is probably receiving most attention, as it is one risk that we have the ability to manage. It is stating the obvious to say that we live in a highly connected world with most countries just one or two flights

Pharmacies across New Zealand are selling out of surgical face masks as the deadly coronavirus continues to spread throughout China.

So far, there have been no reported cases of the virus within New Zealand, but this hasn’t stopped Kiwis from stocking up on the masks just in case, pharmacy staff have said.

One worker at Life Pharmacy in Remuera, Auckland, said the store had sold out of the masks three days ago and were unable to get any more straight away.

‘‘Our wholesaler, Pro Pharma, is out at the moment too so we’re having to tell people we’re out,’’ she said.

‘‘We’re getting around 15 people a day coming in and asking for masks, whereas, before last week, we’d maybe sell a box a day or less.’’

away from China. If the spread continues we are likely to see imported coronavirus cases in New Zealand, just as such cases are being detected in Australia and a growing number of other countries.

The future course of this epidemic is unpredictable. New Zealand is fortunate in having a number of advantages in combating this threat. Because of China’s greater openness in sharing information, we have the most important defence of all, which is knowledge about

Invercargill pharmacist Donna Kerr said masks were selling out faster than her shop could restock them.

‘‘We got in six boxes of masks on Saturday morning, by midday, they were all gone.’’

Kerr said the masks were being bought in bulk, mainly by the local Asian communities.

Lisa Chamussy, a New Zealander who had just arrived in Auckland from Thailand, said she heard about the outbreak four days ago and decided to buy a mask before heading home.

‘‘We’ve been wearing masks at the airports and on the planes – being cautious, just in case.’’

Chamussy said many other tourists in Thailand had also been wearing them, as did nearly everyone on her flight.

The Ministry of Health said the risk of coronavirus in New Zealand was currently low but it was taking the outbreak ‘‘very seriously’’.

the nature of this threat.

There is a laboratory test that can confirm cases. We know it’s a coronavirus and, if it behaves like SARS, it can be controlled with basic public health measures.

Another protective factor for New Zealand is timing. Respiratory viruses of all sorts are highly seasonal and conditions in summer (e.g. people spending less time indoors) reduce their transmission.

New Zealand has an established pandemic plan and experience with rolling this out during the last influenza pandemic in 2009.

One limitation is that the ‘‘keep it out’’ component of our pandemic plan remains underdeveloped. Our very small national and regional public health capacity could be easily swamped if a coronavirus epidemic became established here.

Another major challenge for New Zealand is to ensure it does not export this coronavirus to the Pacific Islands, where it could be devastating. Now is the time to be thinking about how to minimise this risk.

We can expect a lot more coronavirus cases and deaths in China. Current data is inevitably out of date as it reflects infections occurring 1-2 weeks ago.

We can also expect growing numbers of cases in other countries and probably new outbreaks in some, particularly in Asia. At that point, the WHO would probably declare this a public health emergency.

We are likely to see imported cases in New Zealand though sustained transmission should be preventable with a vigorous public health response.

Based on current knowledge, and the potential for harm, we need to respond vigorously and effectively to minimise the impact on New Zealand and our Pacific neighbours.

This response should include following the example of many countries outside of China which have enhanced risk-based entry screening at airports (eg, asking travellers about their travel history and any symptoms and providing them with information).

If this new coronavirus does become established in New Zealand we should work with Pacific nations to consider exit screening or even suspending flights from New Zealand to give them more time to prepare for this epidemic.

Throughout this response, we should also take the opportunity to refine our pandemic response systems, identify improvements to our public health infrastructure, and enhance scientific knowledge.

The global environment is arguably becoming more dangerous, with climate change, ecological collapse, and the increased availability of synthetic biology potentially increasing the risk of pandemic diseases.

All the more need to strengthen our public health institutions at the regional, national and international levels.

Our very small national and regional public health capacity could be easily swamped.

Michael Baker is a Professor of Public Health at Otago University, Wellington.