Level one should happen this week
We’re 15 days down without a new case of coronavirus and it would be staggering if the Cabinet delayed a move to level one this week. To do so would only invite civil disobedience among a population that is already at level one in their heads anyway – especially after the prime minister’s hasty pivot on the date last week after a backlash over Black Lives Matter marchers ignoring social distancing.
Initially, Jacinda Ardern had said a move to level 1 would be considered at the end of this month, but it could now happen as early as Wednesday. Most people would have read her shifting the goal posts for what it was; a decision driven as much by politics as science.
The lack of repercussions for the marchers and their blatant disregard for Covid makes any appeal to Kiwis to hold the line on level 2 for much longer almost impossible to enforce. No one questions the anger and anguish at what is happening in America right now, or the wish of the marchers to show solidarity in the face of such overwhelming injustice. But there are still plenty of Kiwis doing it tough who saw the march as a slap in the face for the sacrifices they have made, and are still making.
Life might feel like it’s almost back to normal for many of us – we’ve still got jobs, we’ve been able to head back to the office and some of us have even started planning holidays to take advantage of cheap domestic travel deals.
But the reality for many is much tougher; thousands have lost their jobs, and others still can’t work because of social-distancing measures. While some small businesses are thriving, others are struggling to keep their head above water because of level 2 rules. For these people, life hasn’t changed much and the longer level 2 goes on, the longer they will also have to carry a disproportionate share of the financial burden.
Among the factors the Cabinet will be weighing up with its decision tomorrow may be modelling suggesting there is a 95 per cent chance that Coronavirus has been eliminated in New Zealand.
Those odds are probably about as good as it will get given the likelihood that any new cases will more likely come from someone entering New Zealand from overseas.
That should be an acceptable risk so long as our contact tracing and border measures are up to scratch. But nor can we allow ourselves to be paralysed by risk.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson voiced cautious optimism last week that the worst case scenarios of economic ‘‘carnage’’ predicted in the wake of coronavirus might have been avoided.
He cited benefit applications flattening and retail spending being better than expected, although that may have been a response to the surge of optimism after the country came out of level 3.
Moving to level 1 is the time to start building on that momentum. It might also be a good time to end the daily roll-call of coronavirus cases and shift our focus to the recovery instead.
Maybe Robertson could replace it with a daily update of economic green shoots.
There are still plenty of Kiwis doing it tough who saw the march as a slap in the face for the sacrifices they have made, and are still making.