We need an agreed population policy

different demography.

The reluctance to talk about the sustainability of a universal superannuation scheme is one indication that we are not taking the changes to our demography seriously enough.

One of the default positions has been immigration. Often, our immigration policy has been one of the most important elements of our population policy; sometimes, our main one.

After the outflow of New Zealanders in 2012, mainly to Australia, the country then embarked on a period of significant net migration gains.

The annual net gain ranged from 50,000 to 70,000 permanent migrants, the majority under the Skilled Migrant Category. But there were also 200,000 temporary arrivals on work or study visa provisions.

When New Zealand went into lockdown, there were 310,000 migrants in the country on such visas. New Zealand has gained skills, people and diversity as a result of this recent period of migration.

Covid has bought this period to a grinding halt, although one of the ironies of how well New Zealand has handled the pandemic – and how poorly other countries have performed – is that the country will now be even more desirable as a migrant destination.

Even with the halt to migration, New Zealand’s ethnic diversity will continue to change, with the most obvious result being that, soon, one out of every five of us will be a member of one of the many Asian communities that now call New Zealand home.

In Auckland, these communities will comprise 38 per cent of the city.

Which introduces another important component of our changed demography: the growing dominance of Auckland.

We anticipate that Auckland will be the recipient of 60 per cent of New Zealand’s population growth over the next two decades, and home to 40 per cent of New Zealand’s population.

This growing concentration can be seen in many countries and could be dampened – but it will need some serious policy interventions by New Zealand governments.

The downside is that many other parts of the country will experience population stagnation and, in some cases, decline.

All these elements – declining fertility, rapid ageing, the growth of Auckland (and regional population stagnation/decline), growing ethnic diversity – all need policy attention and innovation.

These changes are so unprecedented that much of our existing policy framework is simply not fit for purpose.

It would help if we had an agreed population policy, and a greater public awareness of how significant and disruptive these changes are going to be.