Paul Spoonley
In March 2020, New Zealand officially became a nation of 5 million people (with another million offshore). The country had been growing at a brisk pace, around 2 per cent per annum. The addition of another million was reached in a record time of 17 years.
For the first part of those 17 years, fertility and natural increase was still the most important contributor to population growth.
But in the last seven years, it was net migration gains – 330,000 additional New Zealanders between 2013 and 2018 – that was responsible for two-thirds of that growth.
New Zealand is becoming a very different country. By 2030, we will be much older, more ethnically diverse, and more of us will live in Auckland – and Hamilton and Tauranga.
The baby boomers (currently aged between 56 and 74) will see the numbers aged 65 and over doubling to 1.2 million. In the 1980s, less than 10 per cent of the population was over 65. Soon it will be close to a quarter.
This was underscored by their vulnerability under Covid-19, especially given their concentration in care facilities.
As we have moved from a young-dominant society to one that is now olddominant, declining fertility has also played its role.
To replace an existing population, a fertility rate of
2.1 children per women is required. New Zealand’s rate is now 1.8. We are experiencing subreplacement fertility.
This decline is compounded by the ‘‘one (child) and done’’ – or none – fertility decisions of millennials, and babies increasingly have mothers who are 30-something. We have more children born to women over the age of 40 than to teenagers.
All the indications are that Covid will see a further drop in fertility rates. Recent research in Europe suggests that about two-thirds of those at an age to decide whether to have children or not are choosing to delay pregnancy – or not to have children at all.
Does it matter that there is an inversion of the classical pyramid population shape of a country? It depends.
There will certainly be an impact on dependency ratios, between those in the paid workforce and those who do not work – for example, the young, the old, those reliant on a benefit.
The challenge becomes one of generating a tax or wealth base to support dependents.
The other issue is the willingness and ability of New Zealand to adjust to a very
When New Zealand went into lockdown, there were 310,000 migrants in the country on such visas. New Zealand has gained skills, people and diversity as a result of this recent period of migration.
Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley’s new book, The New New Zealand: Facing Demographic Disruption (Massey University Press) will be published next week.