Bold ideas and big thinking needed

Lotto queues apparently stretched out the door of some outlets yesterday and the ticketing website nearly crashed. Maybe it’s a sign of the times. Who wouldn’t want the security of $38 million in the bank in such an uncertain world?

Lotto dreams are nice to have at the moment. We’re all getting to grips with the reality of a world that isn’t going to heal itself anytime soon.

I was one of those who at the start of this pandemic believed that smart people would find a way to beat Covid and the world would right itself soon. I was even more confident in our resilience as a nation, after the way we pulled through the Global financial crisis and Christchurch earthquakes.

Thankfully, I’ve been proved right about New Zealand, not just at the people-to-people level, but at central government level as well.

The GFC and Christchurch earthquakes taught successive governments to factor uncertainty and risk – the rainy day scenario – into their fiscal projections; that is what helped set us up to weather this storm.

But I’m less certain now about the world pulling together to beat Covid in the same way they did the GFC. If anything, it feels like this pandemic is pulling the world further apart.

We can feel very lucky here in New Zealand, of course. Today marks the day we have gone 100 days without community transmission of the virus.

But the growing stridency with which we are being warned to take nothing for granted is a reminder of how quickly things could change.

There have been some wild theories doing the rounds about the reasons for the warnings. Frankly, it would be negligent of the Government not to do so; we are all guilty of complacency.

The high cost of another outbreak has also made our politicians risk-averse, highlighted by a political odd couple this week – Helen Clark and John Key.

Both were talking about what comes next once we start opening up to the world. They seemed to be in agreement on some things,like how to get there by using the private sector to help ease the quarantine choke point at the border.

But the reality is that this side of an election, neither Labour or National can see a lot of upside in talking that up.

Most polls show there is little public appetite for letting the world back in especially with private sector help.

The disaster across the Tasman has only hardened that view.

Given the consequences of any mistake, that may not be surprising. Another outbreak, and another lock down, could carve billions of dollars off our GDP, and load us with billions in extra debt.

The human face of that is more job losses and more personal misery.

It’s only natural that in that environment our inclination is to hunker down and ride it out. But that’s just keeping our head in the sand. Which is why now more than ever, we need this election to be fought on some bold ideas, and big thinking, about how we deal with what comes next.

Let’s hope that’s what we get.

If anything, it feels like this pandemic is pulling the world further apart.