The General Election you want to lose?

Of course all ambitious politicians like to see themselves as potentially historical figures: winners who can take charge during a crisis, make the tough decisions and then, if they are lucky, get re-elected for those calls.

Before it spectacularly fell apart, that was effectively how the Lange-Douglas fourth Labour Government went about its business. Faced in 1984 with what key senior ministers saw as almost certain electoral defeat in 1987, the Government got on, uprooted the feudal New Zealand economy and, in the end, got handsomely re-elected in 1987 despite runaway inflation and rising unemployment.

In fact, in 1987 the Lange-Douglas Government got 48 per cent of the vote, a feat the Ardern Labour Government is in a position to beat in 2020. That in turn was the highest percentage of the vote won since Norman Kirk won in 1972 and, before that, when National won 54 per cent during the 1951 strike. John Key, at the height of his power up against a hopelessly outgunned David Cunliffe, only managed 47 per cent.

In one way it would be good if the next Government, whoever it is, holds a majority: they will need to make fast and unpopular decisions. Unemployment will remain high and international tourism will, in all likelihood have to be allowed to die for the time being.

But the biggest worry about New Zealand’s longterm economic health will be the level of debt and constant deficits. The next Government will have to deliver a credible path back to surplus and demonstrate it is backed up by fiscal restraint. Not austerity – but what spending there is will have to show how it will boost productivity not just blow out the books.

Grant Robertson may have been attacking Paul Goldsmith for being a jackal of austerity, but he himself will have to demonstrate significant fiscal rigour next term, or the budget credibility he has fought hard to win in the market will evaporate.

Make no mistake, whoever wins the next election will face a series of bad choices if they don’t want to just kick the can down the road.

The Stuff Finance Debate will be livestreamed on Stuff on Monday October 12 at 7pm.