When will life return to normal?
The pandemic is having a profound effect on the world as we knew it and right now it is getting worse, not better. While we enjoy relatively unfettered freedom in New Zealand, thanks to smart decisions based on good advice, we still face a closed border to the rest of the world.
Given the state of most of the world right now not even the promise of a bargain in the Maldives or skiing in France could entice me out of my bubble until coronavirus is beaten back. So when might that be?
Basically, there are two things that need to happen before we can have visitors or go back out and play. One, generate immunity in most of our population and two, beat the pandemic back in other countries.
It is likely we will start vaccinating against Covid-19 here in New Zealand after March. The first doses of vaccine are scheduled to arrive between now and then and also, additional data required by our regulatory authority (MedSafe) to authorise the use of the vaccines is anticipated by then. Once MedSafe is satisfied the vaccine is suitable for New Zealand, then we can start using it. This will be the case for all other Covid-19 vaccines.
Potentially, we could have most people vaccinated by the fourth quarter of 2021 but this will largely depend on a) the arrival and approval of enough doses of vaccine; and b) the availability and training of enough vaccinators to administer the vaccines. We cannot throw open the borders until most people here are immune to the virus and until this time we also need to keep up the use of the Covid-19 track and trace app and masks where they are required, along with the other behaviours we have been asked to stay mindful of, such as hand hygiene (tedious I know but try to suck it up).
The other thing that needs to happen at the same time is getting control of the escalating pestilence across the rest of the globe.
New cases appear in our managed isolation almost daily and this is with only limited numbers of arrivals. Imagine if we were receiving the normal weekly number of people flooding directly into the community, in a few weeks we would look like the UK.
As of writing, there have been tens of millions of Covid19 vaccine doses administered, mainly in the US, China, Israel, UAE, and the UK. But we need them to reach billions and this needs to be spread evenly. No point just vaccinating a few countries, we need to vaccinate them all. There are several hurdles to jump. First, the production and authorisation of enough doses of vaccine (if other frontline vaccine contenders complete their trials successfully then this is possible). Second, the systems and resources to deliver these vaccines. On this, I have some concern. Already countries like Canada and the US are well behind in the numbers of doses administered and I don’t think there has been enough attention on this rather significant aspect of proceedings.
Third, vaccines must also be deployed in low and middle income countries as thoroughly as they are in high income countries.
These are no mean feats but given we can even have this discussion only 11 months after discovering the cause of this plague gives me optimism. We need to see a massive reduction in Covid-19 cases across the world and at the same time achieve a highly vaccinated New Zealand population. Then we can take that overseas vacation, visit relatives, and relinquish Zoom for face-to-face events. Hang in there, it will happen.
We cannot throw open the borders until most people here are immune to the virus.