Aussie attraction: Why is another ‘brain drain’ on the cards?
New Zealand’s Covid-19 response has made it a safe haven in a pandemic-ravaged world but, post-Covid, is there potential for a new Kiwi ‘‘brain drain’’ to Australia? Miriam Bell reports.
The ‘‘lucky country’’ has always been a magnet for New Zealanders in search of opportunity.
But, after a strong upsurge following the Christchurch earthquakes that peaked around 2012, migration flows to Australia declined significantly in recent years.
Now, as Covid continues to reshape the economic landscape and New Zealand’s house prices skyrocket, there’s speculation that Kiwis might, once again, start to cross the ditch.
At the 2021 NZ Economics Forum this week, several speakers noted that sky-high house prices had the potential to push people towards Australia.
And, in recent weeks, longtime housing affordability cam- paigner Hugh Pavletich has stepped up warnings that affordability concerns could prompt young people to move to Australia in search of cheaper housing.
Economist Cameron Bagrie, of Bagrie Economics, said that, historically, relative economic performance has always been the big driver of migration flows between New Zealand and Australia.
‘‘It’s really about the ability of people to get ahead, and housing plays a big part in that equation. If the ledger is skewed towards Australia on that point, then it will impact on people’s decisions.’’
The bottom line is that Australia is bigger in size and scale than New Zealand and that makes for more opportunities right across the board, he said.
‘‘There’s a common view at the moment that post-Covid there will be all these people rushing to get into New Zealand, and we could see that. But we might also see a bit of a flow of Kiwis to Australia.’’
More than half a million New Zealanders currently live in Australia and many of them are staunch advocates for their adopted country and what it has to offer – including easier access to housing purchases.
The Sunday Star-Times talked to a selection of property-owning Aussie-New Zealanders and, although none had moved to enter the housing market, some clear themes around the attractions of Australia emerged.
Lorraine Swanson-Hoyle has been living in regional Victoria since 2003. Originally from Tirau,
she and her husband moved because he took up a contract with a large company that paid for their move. Even after that contract came to an end, Australia’s attractions were such that they stayed.
‘‘There’s good working conditions, particularly in terms of wages/salary, the tax rate is better and there are good Super schemes and government incentives. Plus the lifestyle is great,’’ Swanson-Hoyle said.
One of the government incentives – the First Home Owner Grant (of $10,000) – helped the couple to buy and build their first home. Since then, they have bought and sold two more times and have no plans to return to New Zealand.
They now live on a six-acre lifestyle property about two and a half hours away from Melbourne. None of their properties have cost more than $350,000, and their current home is valued at around $480,000.
Swanson-Hoyle said her New Zealand-based son bought a property with the same acreage as theirs in the Taupo¯ area in 2019.
‘‘He paid $650,000 and the property is a bit ordinary, plus it is 25 kilometres away from Taupo¯ itself. I think we have much better value for our money.’’
Marge Riggs’ move to Perth from Christchurch 11 years ago was also due to her husband getting a new job. She said she loved living in New Zealand, and wouldn’t have moved to Australia if it hadn’t been for the global financial crisis.
‘‘My husband’s job, and the salary and lifestyle it allowed, was the big attraction for us.We have been a single-income household for most of our time here, but we have travelled widely. And we have been able to build a brand-new house near the beach, with a view of the sea, for $490,000.’’
They would not have been able to do the same so easily and for such a reasonable price in New Zealand , she said.
‘‘We plan to stay here at least until retirement.’’
Brisbane-based Bec Borg is another Kiwi who moved for economic reasons. She and her Sydney-born husband felt they weren’t getting ahead financially in New Zealand, and decided to cross the Tasman in 2007.
Life in Australia has gone well for them, and they plan to stay.
Borg said she didn’t follow the New Zealand property market closely but has been stunned by some recent sale prices.
‘‘I do know of quite a few people who have been lured to Australia by the prospect of cheaper house prices. There’s higher pay too, so it is easier to get into the housing market here.’’
However, the average punter’s decision to up sticks and move their life to Australia tends to be driven by a combination of factors, not just housing options. Infometrics senior economist Brad Olsen said rising house prices here might be a push factor, but the challenge for most people would be whether they could make a move to Australia work from all perspectives. ‘‘It’s not just about getting a cheaper house. People only tend to move for cheaper housing if they can also find a job to support themselves.
‘‘That’s because even if you find a cheap house, you have to be able to pay for it, so the combination of a good job and a solid economy is key when people are making such decisions.’’ Taking that into account, at the moment there is actually a strong case to be made for staying in New Zealand, Olsen said. ‘‘New Zealand’s fairly robust approach to Covid has put the economy in a relatively good position going forwards. Also, the current trade tiff between Australia and China has made for some changes which are of benefit to New Zealand.’’
On top of the current solidly performing domestic economy, it’s worth noting that housing affordability woes are not confined to New Zealand.
While Auckland may have the
fourth-least affordable housing market in the world, Sydney’s is the third-least affordable and Melbourne’s is the sixth-least affordable.
In line with global trends, Australian property values grew by 2.1 per cent over February 2021, which was the fastest rate in 17 years, according to CoreLogic’s national home value index. This left the national median at A$598,884 (NZ$643,752), while values in every capital city also rose.
Massey University sociology professor Paul Spoonley said issues around housing affordability were common to major cities around the world such as Sydney, London, Los Angeles, and Vancouver.
Like Olsen, he thought there were a range of factors at play when it came to migration decisions, and a bigger pull factor for Kiwis looking to Australia was employment options.
Yet, over a period of time, Australia has made it harder for New Zealanders who are not Australian citizens to live and work there, and Covid has also altered the trans-Tasman relationship, Spoonley said.
‘‘I’d suggest that a series of events have cooled the relationship and now, to a large degree, New Zealanders have fallen out of love with Australia.’’
However, there are a lot of Kiwis currently in New Zealand who wouldn’t usually be in New Zealand, Spoonley adds.
‘‘Once more normal travel resumes, there will be big unmet demand to go and live in another country, and Australia is likely to be a prime contender for many.’’
In his first job in New Zealand, Wellingtonian Andre´s Proan˜o Valencia had to contend with a boss who thought it was hilarious to make references to Colombian drug-running.
After the March 15 terror attacks, the Latin American IT professional joined the Inclusive Aotearoa Collective Ta¯ hono, and has become part of a group of more than 800 who are helping to strategise to combat hate.
The collective, led by Anjum Rahman, the acting head of the Islamic Women’s Council, has spent more than a year travelling the country asking Kiwis what it means to belong, with the aim of creating a more cohesive society at a time of increasing polarisation. It will develop a programme of work based on themes established in the research, which will become a toolkit for any individuals or organisations looking to promote diversity and inclusion.
‘‘I figured out there are still structures – whether government, school, workplaces – where there is still sort of privilege and supremacy for the main group here, in this case Pa¯keha¯,’’ Proan˜ o Valencia says. ‘‘It could be very harsh and discriminatory, homophobia, or jokes and put-downs, like I experienced. I found out that people need to get out of their cultural bubbles.’’
Their research found experiences of discrimination, loneliness and exclusion were universal. Those spoken to by the collective had felt marginalised or belittled because of their race, gender, sexual orientation, age, size, place of residence, disability, class, or country of origin.
While some had experienced outright racism – ‘‘I went into a cafe´ and a woman went ‘you’re a Paki, you can’t live here, you have to go back, you can’t eat here’,’’ one person said – others felt smaller exclusions from society every day.
These ranged from people caring for ageing parents as their social networks disappeared, to being passed over for jobs due to appearance or feeling ostracised for their sexuality at church.
‘‘So many people felt like that in different ways, whether they were young, old, Pa¯ keha¯ or not,’’ says Rahman. ‘‘This is about everybody’s wellbeing, bridging the divide and bringing people together, because we all have to live together.
‘‘Do we want people to have happy lives? If we do, what needs to change for all the many people who don’t have that?’’
The research revealed feelings of belonging could be sparked by something as little as being invited somewhere, being asked questions, or actively brought into the conversation.
Rahman established the collective after the Christchurch mosque terror attacks. The Islamic Women’s Council had been imploring the Government, since at least 2017, to create a nationwide strategy for diversity and inclusion.
Their worst realised at those
March 15, 2019.
Rahman says mobilising everyday Kiwis to make differences in their own social circles is a powerful tool to fight hate. ‘‘When you look at the people on the fringes where these extremists are recruited, we know they often feel lonely, isolated, bad about themselves, they feel like no-one values them, so they are really susceptible.
‘‘You can have all the laws, you can have all the regulations, you can police people, but that’s not going to prevent what happened. What will prevent it is strong communities, people who feel connected to each other, feel like they have a place and feel valued.’’ fears were mosques on
‘‘This is about bringing people together, because we all have to live together.’’ Anjum Rahman, acting head of the Islamic Women’s Council